Is Musharraf in the hot seat?

Thursday 04 October 2007

With the rise of islamist extremism, opposition by Pakistani judges and public dissatisfaction with the "war on terror", Pervez Musharraf is getting more unpopular every day.

Special Report Pakistan’s political pains

Thursday 04 October 2007

By Marianne Niosi

When Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999, he was treated to a warm welcome by a population weary of the chronic corruption that had plagued Pakistan's ruling elite.

The dictator sent his political opponents into exile without raising too many eyebrows and proceeded to reorganize government in such a way that the military, an omnipresent force in Pakistani politics, effectively ruled the country. Today, it seems like the tables have turned. His erstwhile exiled opponents are making a comeback, his popularity is dwindling and his Western allies are openly discussing whether or not to let him go. Is the general sitting on an ejectable seat?

In October 1999, when Pervez Musharraf overthrew Nawaz Sharif, he promised to introduce a “true democracy”. Since then, he has flouted many of Pakistan’s democratic safeguards. In defiance of the country’s constitution, he has retained the position of military chief while serving as president and has given the military a major role in his government.

“After seven years in power, Musharraf has failed to deliver on his promise to step down from his position as chief of staff and the population is increasingly frustrated with this”, says France 24/Newsday correspondent Jim Rupert.

The Talibanisation of Pakistan

First denounced as a dictator when he came to power, Musharraf became a respectable head-of-state after the Sept. 11 attacks, when the United States made him an ally in the “war on terror”. He promised to help fight Al Qaeda and their Taliban allies in Pakistan’s border provinces with Afghanistan. A move, says researcher Maryam Abou Zahab from the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (INALCO), that promptly turned against him.

Anti-American demonstrations became commonplace as the Muslim world reacted to the perceived “anti-Islam” stance of the war on terror. “For ordinary Pakistanis, the Islamist presence along Afghan border is not a major problem and the war on terror, which has left hundreds of soldiers dead, is essentially a destabilizing factor for the country”, says Abou Zahab.

Musharraf’s political opponents have publicly voiced their dissatisfaction in their discourse. Exiled ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told Pakistani television : “If you are going to fight terrorism, you must put the interests of the people and of the country first and then act.” Another former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has written in op-eds in several Western papers that the rise of Islamist sentiment in the country is due to a lack of democracy. Bhutto has promised to restore democracy were she to be handed power. She has also blamed Musharraf for the growing “talibanization” of Pakistan, a phenomenon that has seen Islamism, previously confined to the northwestern tribal regions, seeping into Pakistani cities.

The Red Mosque rebellion in the heart of the capital of Islamabad is an alarming manifestation of this phenomenon. In July, the event ended in a bloodbath after the army stormed the sprawling compound of the Red Mosque -- or Lal e-Masjid in the native Urdu -- to pull-out the clerics and students locked up inside. The president took much of the blame for the more than 100 dead and his popularity reached an all time low.

A Change of Political Mood

While the Pakistan-US alliance damaged his reputation, Musharraf found himself increasingly criticised for his autocratic tendencies. Between March and July, several demonstrations took place to protest the sacking of Supreme Court Chief Justice Ifthikar Chaudhry. “People had a feeling that this was just a crass political move to remove a judge who poses a risk to his power,” says Rupert.

The protests left several opposition activists militants dead and galvanized the country’s middle class, long indifferent to the country’s politics. Their movement sparked a vocal movement for justice and democracy. “There is a sense among Pakistani people that politicians are there only to serve their own interests. This judge, who only seems to have the people’s interest in mind, has become a sort of hero”, says Abou Zahab. Musharraf faced a major blow after the Supreme Court ruled to reinstate Chaudhry in July. The protesters, led by lawyers’ organisations, were surprised at their collective force.

Sensing their foe’s weakness, two major opposition figures took the opportunity to attempt a comeback into Pakistani politics. Sharif, the leader of the Pakistani Muslim League-N (PML-N), came home from seven years of exile Sept. 10 only to be expelled from the country a few hours later. While Bhutto, leader of the Pakistani People’s Party (PPP), has been negotiating the terms of her return to her homeland for months with the backing of the United States and the United Kingdom.

“She’s ready to form an alliance with Pervez Musharraf. The military view this in a good light as they know that they can keep her under their thumb,” says Rupert.

Now, as presidential elections approach, will the massive anti-Musharraf mood signal the end of his political career and usher in a new political era ? Most probably not, say experts. Presidential elections, scheduled to take place before Oct. 6, are “a largely managed affair,” says Rupert and the electoral college convened to elect him “is in his pocket”.

Musharraf's weakness, analysts say, will be in the spotlight when parliamentary elections are held and the people are given an opportunity to show their disgust with the general’s regime, before the end of 2007. “In my opinion, there are two possibilities after these elections," says Rupert. "Either, the military takes note of this massive disavowal and replaces its chief of staff, or Pervez Musharraf instates martial law and dismisses an unfavourable parliament.” All the more reason for the general to feel uneasy in his chair.