RUSSIA - GEORGIA
Tensions rise between Georgia and Russia
Thursday 01 May 2008
But a war of words is more likely than military conflict in the Russia-Georgia standoff.
Tensions rise between Georgia and Russia
Armen GeorgianThursday 01 May 2008
Moscow says it is staving off the threat of war and moving to protect Abkhazians, many of whom have Russian passports. Georgia denies any military build-up, and suspects Russia’s real motive is to block any changes to the peacekeeping format in Abkhazia. Moscow provides the bulk of the forces there. Tbilisi believes this gives the Kremlin far too much influence and prevents the conflict from being solved in favour of Georgia’s territorial integrity.
Georgia was planning to push for more EU involvement in Abkhazia at a meeting in Brussels on April 30. But, just the day before, Russia stole Georgia’s thunder by claiming that Tbilisi had massed 1,500 troops near the Abkhaz-Georgian border. From the Georgian perspective, Russia’s timing was suspicious.
The war of words may yet escalate, but all sides surely have too much to lose from a renewal of hostilities. The Abkhaz war of the early 1990’s cost an estimated 10,000 lives. Nobody needs fresh bloodshed and a new refugee problem.
A conflict would not help Georgia’s bid to join NATO, nor would it serve to improve Russia’s relations with the West just when a new president has taken over in Moscow. The military tensions are part of a geopolitical tussle, but they do not yet spell a second Abkhaz war.
