Thursday, January 08, 2009

Friday, August 8, 2008 - 17:30

AFP News Briefs List
 
Italy's economy contracts, bringing recession close

The Italian economy contracted in the second quarter, official data showed on Friday, bringing the country close to recession in a move that analysts said was an early warning of a broader eurozone slowdown.

Italy is the first big European country to announce a figure for gross domestic product for the second quarter, which showed a 0.3-percent contraction compared with the first quarter.

In the first quarter, the economy had grown 0.5 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2007.

The Istat statistics office, which publishes the data, said that output in the second quarter, on a 12-month comparison, was zero. This was the lowest figure since minus 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2003.

The latest data was below the figures expected by economists questioned by the ANSA news agency who had expected zero growth in the quarter by comparison with the first-quarter figure and rise of 0.3 percent on a 12-month comparison.

The figures were seen as throwing doubt on a forecast by the right-wing government of Silvio Berlusconi that the economy will grow by 0.5 percent this year.

An economist at Intesa Sanpaolo bank, Anna-Maria Grimaldi, told AFP: "This slowdown can be explained mainly by a contraction of internal demand with consumption depressed, and a fall of exports weighed down by an unduly strong euro."

She said: "These factors can only contribute to a serious slowing in the eurozone, as the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, recognised on Thursday when speaking of very weak growth in coming quarters."

At BNP Paribas, Caroline Newhouse-Cohen said: "These are the first GDP figures to come out and they anticipate a general setback in Europe.

"Even if Italy is suffering from a more unfavourable situation than Germany or France, we have every chance of seeing a contraction of about 0.3 percent or more, in the whole of the eurozone."

"Even the German GDP, expected next week, is likely to show a fall of 0.8 percent."

In July, the Bank of Italy reduced its forecast for Italian growth to 0.4 percent for this year and next because of deteriorating international conditions and the rise of the price of oil.

Italian trades unions spoke of a coming recession. The Cisl federation said on Friday: "We have gone from zero growth to an ever more real danger of economic recession."

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