Members of Israel's centrist ruling party have begun voting for a new head to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert after his decision to step down to face graft charges. Peace negotiator Tzipi Livni and hawkish Shaul Mofaz are battling it out to to take his place.

The latest polls showed Livni leading with 48% of the vote against Mofaz at 28% of the vote. But according to FRANCE 24 Jerusalem correspondent Annette Young, the Livni camp remains cautious because the results depend on who turns out to vote. “They believe a low turnout could favour Mofaz,” she says.

Livni-Moffaz, strikingly different profiles

The leading candidates have strikingly different profiles. Foreign Minister Livni, dubbed Mrs Clean, is perceived as being free of scandals, a welcome change after Olmert’s scandal-tainted premiership.

She takes a more conciliatory approach to peace negotiations with Palestinians, advocating withdrawing from most of the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem in order to reach a two-state solution.

"I want to hold peace negotiations as long as the Palestinians want the same. But any agreement must provide security to Israel," the former Mossad agent recently told supporters in Haifa.

Her main rival, Mofaz, has garnered a reputation for tough tactics against the Palestinians, first as army chief and then as defence minister. He has also said an attack on his native Iran could become "inevitable" if it pursued a programme to develop nuclear arms.

« If Moffaz is elected, hem ay turn Kadima into a second Likoud,” Gil Mihaely, an editorialist at Yediot Ahronot newspaper warned on FRANCE 24. “But if Livni wins, she could breathe new life into the party.”

Interesting "day-after" scenario

However, the election of either candidate to lead the Kadima party is unlikely to forestall the political turmoil ahead. Once elected, the new party chief will have to form a coalition government and secure the support of 61 members of the 120-member Knesset.

According to Young, it will be a “very interesting day-after scenario” as coalition partners start bargaining their support. If the newly elected head of Kadima does not secure a majority in the Knesset, Israel will head for parliamentary elections, probably in March 2009. In that case, Olmert would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

Kadima, created by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, only numbers some 74,000 members. It could face a tough battle, as this relatively new party only holds a quarter of seats in the Knesset.