Click here to watch the second part of the Talk of Paris with Brent Scowcroft

Ulysse Gosset – Welcome on France 24 to this new edition of The Talk of Paris. This is a really special, exceptional edition because we are welcoming our 100^th guest. José Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission, was our first guest on The Talk of Paris. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the Soviet Union, was our 50^th guest, and we have the privilege, today, of welcoming – thanks to a live link-up with Washington – one of the great American strategists, an aviation general from Utah, who was the National Security Advisor to three Presidents of the United States: Nixon, Ford and Bush father. Good day, Brent Scowcroft, and thank you for being with us.

Brent Scowcroft – Good day. It’s nice to be with you.

You succeeded Henry Kissinger in the White House as National Security Advisor and, people say, you were the first to coin the phrase “the new world order”, in a conversation with President Bush Sr. Today, we’d like to know how you see the state of the world at a time when we’re going through an area of turbulence. We are even talking about a world disorder today, are we now?

Yes, I believe we are. The world is much more turbulent, even than it was in the days of the Cold War. The Cold War was a very intense period, when we faced the threat of thermonuclear war. But, relative to the world today, it was a very tidy world. It was a world we understood. Today, there are forces at work in the world that are very new, very novel. Globalization has become endemic in all facts of live and we are having difficulty coming to grips with it. And we are trying to deal with it not only with habits of mind geared to an earlier era but also with institutions that were built primarily to deal with problems of the Cold War or even earlier.

That would be a dangerous thing to say. But, given the overhang of a serious mistake perhaps leading to nuclear war – which is a terrible responsibility – it still was, as I said, a very tidy world. And both sides were very cautious about the moves they were taking because of the possibility that it could lead to an unmanageable crisis. Today, that overwhelming threat has disappeared. And the problems, while not being so cosmic as that during the Cold War, are everywhere. And we frequently don’t even recognize that there is a problem, or even the area of the world it comes from, until it arises. But it’s easy to be nostalgic.

How would you defining the period we are experiencing as the 21^st century begins?

I believe it is a period marked by a historical discontinuity. As I said, the world of the Cold War and the world we’re in now are almost complete opposites of each other. And we’re having difficulty translating the difference. The world is now, for example… All the people of the world are now politicized because virtually everyone is within [earshot] of a radio, within sight of a television. So news travels instantaneously. So the world’s people are politicized. Which has never happened before in history.

Barack Obama will be entering the White House in January. What does that represent for you, personally? You have served several US Presidents. What does this election of the first black President represent in your view?

I think it represents the final triumph of the United States with a problem we’ve been grappling with from the founding of our Republic. And I think now we have finally come to grips with it and conquered it. And I think that’s a tremendous advantage.

Do you think Barack Obama will be able to reconcile the United States with the rest of the world?

I think he has an enormous job ahead. But I think, also, he has a great deal of goodwill. Not only in the United States but abroad. And I think that the people of the world see that what we have done by his election has lifted their spirits. And I think one of his problems will be dealing with the expectations which have accompanied his election.

I think it would be hard for them not to be excessive. Because, so far, there is only the euphoria of the fact that United States has done such a bold act. But, as soon as the new President starts to make decisions, there will be people who will not like those decisions and the goodwill is in danger of dissipating.  So I think what would help a lot is an early success to bolster the sense of reality that those expectations create.

As you know, Brent Scowcroft, every month we broadcast a survey with Harris Interactive and the International Herald Tribune. This week, we are launching the first barometer of world leaders. Let’s look at the results of this survey, first of all in terms of influence. This survey was carried out in five European countries and in the United States. Who are the most influential leaders? Of course, Barack Obama is not in this league table because he isn’t in the White House yet. Here are the first results for the most influential leaders. [They] show that George W. Bush, the current President, gets 70% (he’s the number-one), followed by Vladimir Putin (63%), Angela Merkel (60%), Nicolas Sarkozy (58%) and Gordon Brown (53%). So, what are your first reactions to these results? Are you surprised?

I guess not, I don’t know that I’d draw any particular conclusions from it. I think, on any survey regarding influence, the most influential still has to be the United States. Russia could be second, or it could be someone else. One of the things that’s most surprising about the whole thing is that China, for example, does not register at all.

The third place was reserved for Angela Merkel. Does this show that the Chancellor’s influence has grown in Europe and across the world?

To me, what that signifies is that she has taken a much more catholic (universal -ndlr) approach to the problems of the world than her predecessor did. So I welcome that position which she has assumed because I think she is turning out to be a very responsible leader.

And what about Nicolas Sarkozy? He’s quite well known in the United States. Do you personally think he has shown over recent months to establish himself as an important world leader?

Yes, I believe he has. Certainly with respect to US-French relations I think there has been an enormous improvement over his predecessor. Under President Chirac, our relations were, shall we say, rocky. And I think President Sarkozy has shown energy and intellectual verve, if you will, and has not hesitated to step up. And I think it’s a refreshing change.

The second part of our survey is on the popularity of leaders: let’s see who the most popular leaders in the world are. The results are very interesting and surprising. Look at the table: the Dalai Lama is the most popular leader (71%), then come Angela Merkel (54%), Tony Blair (51%), Pope Benedict XVI (48%), Nicolas Sarkozy (45%). Here again, are you surprised by this result?

Yes, I am surprised by the result. Because it’s hard for me to get a single barometer, if you will, on which all of these would have a similar scale. Two of them are religious leaders, two are political leaders… I’m surprised by it. But I hardly know what to say.

Indeed, it’s quite surprising that the Dalai Lama and the Pope are among the top five most popular global leaders.

Does this say something about the state of the world and about the influence of religion on world affairs?

Well, I would hazard to guess that what it says is that the world is yearning for a, if not religious, at least a humanistic approach that puts religion – or, if you will, care and concern for one’s fellow man – at the top of the agenda. And that’s the conclusion that I would come to that those two would be on a scale like this.

The last point: we summed up all these results, all these surveys, blending influence and popularity, and the top three are Angela Merkel (57%), the Dalai Lama (54%) and Nicolas Sarkozy (51%), according to the results of our survey with Harris Interactive. So a woman obtains the best result. A world about Angela Merkel: do you think, today, that she is the woman of the year? Do you think she has achieved an international stature that is in line with this survey?

Well it seems to me obvious that’s what the survey indicates. And I think that… I have a great deal of admiration for Chancellor Merkel and for what she has done. But I would note that she has her hands full of problems governing Germany both as Chancellor and as Party leader. But she has taken a much more, if you will, catholic - with a small ‘c’ - and universal approach to the problems which we face. So I think, yes, she could well be considered woman of the year.

From your point of view, for Barack Obama, who is the most important leader in the world? With whom should he engage in a dialogue immediately? Who is the leader of the most critical importance to him?

Oh, my, that’s a difficult question to answer, because there are so many. I believe there’s a dialogue that needs to be begun or sustained in so many different areas. Certainly with the leaders you mentioned in Europe. It’s important we continue our efforts to re-solidify, if you will, the transatlantic partnership. It is important that he communicate with one of the other leaders you had, Vladimir Putin, and his president, President Medvedev. For different reasons. Because we have had a number of misunderstandings that are critically important. I think as well he should engage with the leaders of China and the leaders of India, and of the other growing powers like Brazil, for example. So the list is almost endless. We have a great deal of repair work to do.

As you have already said, one of the top priorities of the new President will be the Near East, the Middle East, and you would like him to dedicate his energies to it. Let’s listen to a question by Pascal Boniface, who is from the Iris Institute.

[…] conflict should be the first priority. This conflict has gone on for too long and as already affected American national interests. Do you think Barack Obama will seriously tackle this problem? Do you think he has a better chance of achieving success than his predecessors? What major obstacles will he encounter on the way to reaching a solution to the conflict or simply in his desire to go right to the end? Do you think he will have the courage and the capacity to get to the bottom of this question and succeed in reaching an agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians with the backing of the United States?

Well, I certainly hope so. I hope that President Obama will give serious consideration to tackling the Palestinian peace process as one of his very first endeavors. As the questioner said, it’s been a very difficult problem. The last two presidents have left it to near the end of their terms to undertake it, and neither one has succeeded. It seems to me that it is crucial to the Middle East that issue. And the Middle East is crucial, if you will, to reducing a sense of turmoil and disruption in the world. Not everyone in the region thinks that the Palestinian [issue] is the top issue. But there’s no doubt that there’s a pervasive sense of injustice in the Islamic world, based on the existence of the Palestinian struggle. The obstacles are many. There are still very difficult issues to be solved. The two parties – both the Israeli and the Palestinian governments – are in a very week position and thus unable to be very assertive. But I think the one thing that is clearly present is that, if the President himself were to take a principled position, based on the kinds of agreements that have tentatively been made by the two sides, going back as far as the Taba accords in 2000, he can overcome that sense of weakness on both sides and succeed.

So Barack Obama could be the man who will bring peace to the Middle East?

I think that’s entirely possible. It is a project that is fraught with peril because it’s been going on since 1948 and no-one has succeeded in solving it. Up to now. But I think now we do have an unusual opportunity. The current American administration has pushed hard but has not quite succeeded. But I think to pick up where this administration left off and give it a final push with substantial personal support by the President could prove sufficient.

Thank you, Brent Scowcroft. That’s the end of the first part of this program. Let’s catch up on the latest news on France 24 Stay with us.