India - Mumbai attacks - Pakistan

India-Pakistan "war is not on the table for the moment"

Tuesday 02 December 2008

Jean-Luc Racine is a researcher at France's National Centre for Scientific Research. In an interview with FRANCE 24, the Pakistan specialist explains the consequences of the Mumbai attacks on relations between Pakistan and India.

The first elements of the investigation tend to indicate Pakistani involvement in the attacks. What do you think of this hypothesis?

At first, the theory of Indian attackers seemed plausible, even if until now the operations conducted by the Indian Mujahidins were a of a different type, mostly bombs exploding in markets or train stations.

Then the Prime Minister mentioned “foreign elements”. Suspicions against Pakistan grew stronger when it became clear that these attackers were extremely well-trained and well-equipped. Of course, we must wait until India proves its allegations before jumping to conclusions. But according to the first elements of the case, the hypothesis of a link to the Lashkar-e-Taïba group grows stronger. This group was involved in multiple attacks in India, notably against the Parliament in 2001.

It is also noteworthy that the Indian government has not accused the Pakistani government of involvement. Dialogue between the two governments continues.

The Lashkar-e-Taïba group has become one of Pakistan’s most active jihadist factions. It is the military arm of the religious movement Jamaat ud Dawa, present in many Pakistani cities. Without necessarily having a direct link with al Qaeda, it seems clear that convergences exist between the two groups.

The tense relationship between India and Pakistan had eased slightly in recent months. Do you fear that these attacks once again makes it worse?

Since 2004, India and Pakistan have been engaged in discussions on several issues, including the crisis in Kashmir. The negotiations, although difficult, are still underway, and the relationship between the two countries was slowly improving. Since his election as Pakistani president, in September 2008, Asif Ali Zardari has expressed his desire to strengthen the dialogue with his Indian counterpart. Some of his declarations went down badly with Pakistani hawks. One of the motivations behind the attacks may have been to jeopardise the slow bridge-building between the two rival nations. The future of bilateral relations will largely depend on Islamabad’s response once India presents the results of its investigation.

President Zardani said that Pakistan also suffers from terrorism. Others sources even bring up possible secret service (ISI) involvement in the attacks. Do you believe ISI has the capacity to lead clandestine activities?

Indeed, Pakistan also increasingly suffers from terrorism. The question has been made even more complicated by the role played by the ISI secret service. The key question in Indian authority’s minds is: have official links with islamist terrorists been entirely severed? If they haven’t been, at what level are they?

One must be careful when bringing up the possibility of war between India and Pakistan. War is not on the table at the moment. In 2002, after the attack against the Indian parliament, New Delhi and Islamabad both sent troops to their country’s border. Tension was very high, but it did not cause a war. Nuclear dissuasion played its part, so did pressure from Washington and the international community. Today, any talk of armed conflict would be premature.