Read the FRANCE 24 Observers on "Is the Israeli intervention justified?"

FRANCE 24's Ygal Saadoun reports from the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

On Dec. 19, Hamas refused to renew its six-month truce with Israel. The Islamist movement, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since June 2007, accused the Jewish state of not respecting its commitments by refusing to lift the blockage on  Gaza, transforming the densely populated coastal enclave into a virtual prison.

For its part, Israel wants to bring an end to Hamas rocket attacks on its territory. “There are 250,000 people living in southern Israel who live under the threat of missile attacks,” Israeli Ambassador to France Shmuel Ravel told FRANCE 24. “The Israeli government has a responsibility to defend its citizens.”

Israeli politics and the upcoming elections

While self-defense is Israel’s stated goal for the current attacks, many experts believe the Feb. 10, 2009 Israeli election has a role to play in the timing of the current Gaza offensive.  According to Noha Rashmawi, a representative of the Palestinian delegation in France, “Israeli policy today is dictated by electoral politics. It is driven purely by political one-upmanship.”

In the run-up to the elections, the aim of the assault on the Gaza Strip is also to restore the reputation of the Israeli military after its resounding defeat during the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to the director of the Observatory of the Arab countries in Paris, Antoine Basbous, “Israel’s obsession with its defeat in the 2006 war is behind its decision to pull out all the stops in Gaza and not spare Hamas.”

Joseph Maila, director of the Peace Research Centre in Paris, agrees. He says the operation aims at erasing the fiasco that took place during the war against the Shia movement Hezbollah in Lebanon. “A large-scale operation will benefit [Israeli Defense Minister] Ehud Barak, and will show that [the Israli FM] Tzipi Livni is tough on the Palestinians and will weaken the [head of the opposition] Benjamin Netanyahu who will no longer seem as the only ultranationalist candidate.”

According to Basbous, the outgoing government of Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is trying to “successfully implement Netanyahu policies without Netanyahu. ”The Israeli government is trying to show the world that mistakes made in 2006 will not be repeated,” says Basbous. “They will even be mended two-and-a-half years later.”

Saving Abbas

The mandate of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ends on Jan. 9th. The Israelis risk losing their “moderate” peace talks partner for a radical group which refuses to recognize the existence of the Israeli state. Basbous explains that Hamas will claim it represents Palestinians at the end of Abbas’ mandate and Hamas could increase its sway.

While they look the other way

Regional deadlines also determined the timing of the Israeli offensive on Gaza. Lebanon goes to the polls in spring and tensions are running high. The 2006 war battered Beirut and widened the divide between the pro-Western governmental majority and the opposition close to Syria.

Even if the Israeli government launched an offensive for internal, not international reasons, says Maila, they are taking advantage of the fact that Hezbollah can’t afford to launch an assault against Israel at present. “Though the Hezbollah has quadrupled its military might since 2006,” says Basbous, “it will not take risks [and attack Israel’s northern border] because it knows that Israel is waiting for an opportunity to slam Hezbollah - at least that’s what its government says.”

The inauguration of Barack Obama as US president on Jan. 20 also determines the timing of the Israeli attacks in Gaza. According to Bassam Tahan, politics professor at Paris University, “this operation comes just before Obama takes over in Washington.”

The Israeli government is taking advantage of the transition between the Bush and Obama administrations and spares the next government the headache of having to take a stance on the assault. Moreover, “Obama wants to change politics and the Israeli offensive is likely to calm his ardour,” says Maila. This “yes we can” policy might stop at the gates of Gaza.