They are the innocent bystanders of the world’s economic crisis: poorer, developing countries whose recent economic boom set them apart from their richer, crisis-plagued, global brethren.
But now, say the experts, the developing nations are suddenly bearing the brunt of the recession. The World Bank is warning that 98 developing countries may not be able to finance their debts this year as credit remains out of reach in a global economy headed for its first contraction since World War II.
The economic crisis is fast becoming a game of gloom-and-doom one-upmanship as yesterday’s already bleak forecasts become today’s even bleaker outlooks.
Take the International Monetary Fund. Back in January, it predicted the world economy would manage – just barely – to hold its head above water this year, with half a percentage point of growth.
But now its fellow lender, the World Bank, in a new report ahead of next week's meeting of G20 finance ministers, has concluded that the global GDP is actually set to shrink this year for the first time…since the 1940s.
The original US subprime crisis has morphed into a cavernous financial black hole that sucks everyone into its vortex.
Falling prices for oil and raw materials are hammering the economies of formerly thriving up-and-comers – from Russia to China to Brazil.
Financing debt
The World Bank says that 94 out of 116 poorer nations are experiencing slowdowns. Only a quarter of these poorer nations have the means to kick-start their economies on their own.
To finance their debt, they need at least $268 billion this year, perhaps as much as $700 billion. The World Bank is tripling its spending budget to $35 billion. But as you might imagine, it's overwhelmed by the magnitude of the need.
So will the poor be left to fend for themselves?
Perhaps not intentionally. But it’s a safe bet that struggling nations in East Asia, Africa and Latin America could end up as the castaways of a rich-world crisis that attends to its own needs first.
To be fair, the World Bank is calling for the creation of a “Vulnerability Fund” to help the poorer nations. It’s asking rich nations to pitch in a tiny fraction - 0.7% - of whatever they spend on their own domestic stimulus plans.
Wanted: more demand
But politicians in rich countries, cash-strapped at home and facing growing protectionist pressures, are likely to tread warily with such appeals for largesse.
Barack Obama's top economic advisor, Lawrence Summers, has told the Financial Times that the rich world needs to pull its weight more to lift the global economy out of recession. He wants to see rich countries spend more to boost demand - as China is doing.
According to the Reuters news agency, the IMF says the US has spent 4.8% of its GDP on stimulus, versus 3.4% for Germany and just 2.2% for Japan.
By contrast, the World Bank warns that most of the debt-ridden developing nations lack the werewithall to launch their own stimulus packages.












