I heard some rioters shout 'Out with the French!' at me.

Pascal Kryl

A French expat gives his account from Madagascar's capital

During the weekend, soldiers at a key army base near the capital warned they would refuse any further orders to act against the almost-daily demonstrations, but denied their decision amounted to munity.

Neither is the army openly supporting Rajoelina. "We promise to remain neutral. We implore all political players, civil society organisations and other parties to reunite immediately to find a solution within the next 72 hours to help the nation out of the current crisis," General Edmond Rasolomahandry, the army's chief of staff, told reporters on Tuesday. "If a solution is not found after the 72 hours, then we, the armed forces, we will take responsibility for running national affairs and protect the national interest and unity."

Rajoelina's announcement that he will boycutt crisis talks, due to begin on Thursday, made the possibility of a military takeover of the island seem all the more real.

"The balance of power can shift very rapidly," making it very difficult to predict the outcome of the crisis, explains Vanier, adding that given the president's increasing isolation, the situation currently seems to be shifting in favour of his adversary.

Rajoelina, who fears arrest, is currently in hiding in an unspecified foreign embassy, his spokesperson told FRANCE 24.