COMMENTARY
Historic, unprecedented: Obama's televised address to Iran's people and leaders might be both of those things. But is it enough to overturn nearly 30 years of fear and loathing between the US and Iran?
20090320-obama-bon-m.jpg
20090320-obama-bon-blog-110.jpg

What's beyond doubt is the Obama oratory on the campaign trail was no flash in the pan.

 

His video address to Iranians celebrating Nowruz - the arrival of spring and the beginning of the New Year - is a clever move.

 

Take a look at it: after 45 seconds the camera zips in for a big close-up of the president, dispensing with the Stars and Stripes.

 

There's no eagle, no Oval office backdrop that says: "I'm the most powerful man in the world." This is Obama talking from man to man.

 

The direct appeal to Iran's people and leaders is big: George W. Bush lumped Iran into his infamous "Axis of evil" of rogue states and refused to talk to its leaders.

 

To be fair, Bush also made Nowruz addresses to the Iranian people, but not like this.

 

Obama's video address is a reflection of how easily he grasps modern communication; Bush's weekly radio addresses were all good and fine, but the Blackberry and Facebook loving Obama knows how to connect with a 21st century electorate.

 

That said, YouTube has been officially banned from Iran since last November and although Iranian TV was due to broadcast the address, it will be hard to gauge just how well or badly Obama's latest overtures are received.

 

Dr Ali Pedram, the Iran Programme Manager for the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting, thinks Obama's words are "very smart and refreshing," but his note of caution is probably typical of many in Tehran and beyond.

 

He told FRANCE 24: "It takes more endeavours than friendly rhetoric, although this message is definitely righteous in its merit.  We should not also forget that President Obama has not yet responded to President Ahmadinejad's congratulating message for his election. As for the people, I believe Obama still is very appealing. His middle name is Hussein and more importantly has no Anglo-Saxon stubbornness. His trip to Turkey will be followed and watched very closely."

 

Election fever

 

Obama may be mellower than Bush, but he still faces a huge challenge in persuading Iranians that the US wants to bring their country out of nearly 30 years of international diplomatic isolation.

 

He's got to overturn decades of sabre-rattling and mutual suspicion that's only been further antagonised by claims that Iran's supposed nuclear power programme is a front for building bombs.

 

The early signs look good: President Mahmoud Ahmadenijad welcomed Obama's address but said he wants concrete actions.

 

He's already indicated he'll consider sitting down to talks with the US, but he may not have that luxury if he loses the presidential elections in June.

 

The reformist candidate, former Prime Minister Hosein Mousavi, could emerge as the front runner.

 

He's still considered a hardline politician and as the Economist points out, the crucial element for the US - Iranian foreign policy is largely out of the President's hands.

 

Instead, it's the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who decides foreign policy; nor can he be expected to let anyone likely to capitulate to the US take the reins.

 

Obama's road to Tehran is long and still full of pitfalls. 

 

 

Close