After grabbing the headlines for months, creating farcical scenes in parliament and sparking strong public opposition, France’s controversial internet piracy bill should, failing another coup de théâtre, be adopted in a few days’ time. This Tuesday, MPs are set to vote on the bill, and a vote in the Senate is planned for the very next day.

This time, MPs of Nicolas Sarkozy’s ruling UMP party are expected to turn out in large numbers for the vote, keen to avoid another debacle like that of April 9. That day, opposition MPs, who outnumbered the MPs of the ruling party, managed to reject the bill in a show of hands by 21 votes to 15, a most embarrassing episode for the government. A vote in favour of the bill is therefore relatively likely if the MPs of the ruling party turn out in large enough numbers. As for the Senate, a positive vote there seems highly likely, since opposition senators already voted in favour of the text the first time around.

Even if it ends up being adopted, the bill, which would cut off a "pirate"'s internet access after two prior warnings (he or she would still have to pay his or her subscription) has publicly highlighted France’s divisions over this thorny social issue. Between those who argue in favour of the bill in the name of copyright, and those who consider that the idea of cutting off internet access is an attack on basic freedoms, the debate is far from over.

Socialist MP and former French culture minister Jack Lang, the only opposition MP who has said he will vote in favour of the bill, succinctly summed up what is at stake. “It is not easy, I acknowledge, neither for the left, nor for the government, to reconcile two important freedoms, the freedom of internet users and the freedom of creators and artists,” he said on French TV channel TF1 on April 28.

And the saga doesn’t end there. On May 6, the European Parliament adopted, by a large majority, an amendment to the “telecoms package” (a bill which aims to harmonise telecommunications in the EU), stipulating that only a court ruling can allow a person’s internet access to be cut off. And yet, the French bill would allow not a judicial authority but rather an independent administrative authority, baptised Hadopi, to decide whether to cut off a web user’s internet connection.

The fact that the European Parliament voted for this amendment does not prevent France from adopting the anti-piracy bill. But the latter would become null and void if – in a less likely hypothesis – the Council of the European Union, composed of ministers from the 27 EU member states, adopted the amendment in question. The next Council is planned for June 12.