Copenhagen deal uncertain as preliminary talks close

Officials attending preliminary climate change talks in Barcelona have acknowledged that the United Nations' main event in Copenhagen next month may fail to produce a final accord, drawing criticism from environmental groups.

AFP - UN climate talks headed into their final sessions here Friday amid scant progress towards a post-2012 pact and anger that a timetable to conclude the deal next month could slip by up to a year.
  
Senior officials, meeting for five days in Barcelona, have been tasked with hammering out a workable blueprint for the December 7-18 showdown in Copenhagen.
  
More than 190 nations are called to action under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aiming for an accord to slash emissions from fossil fuels that trap solar heat and drive global warming.
  
The putative treaty would also prime a money pump, channelling hundreds of billions of dollars towards poor countries most exposed to disrupted weather systems.
  
But after nearly two years of haggling, deep rifts remain over burden-sharing between rich and poor nations. The process has also been badly held up by Washington's reluctance to declare its hand while a climate bill slowly makes its way through Congress.
  
European Union and British officials on Thursday said it was possible the Copenhagen outcome could be a framework agreement that would be fleshed out in 2010.
  
Green groups and activists for the Third World accused advanced economies of backsliding.
  
"There's no question: they're trying to get a get-out-of-jail card," said Antonio Hill of Oxfam International, referring to a tactic used in the board game Monopoly.
  
"It is a political decision now. Negotiators are perfectly capable of drawing up what needs to be agreed."
  
Experts on Friday warned emissions pledges so far were falling far short of what the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says is needed to limit warming to a safer two degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
  
"Developed country emission reductions as a whole are currently projected to be eight to 12 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 after accounting for forestry credits, rather than the 25-40 percent described as necessary," said Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics, a policy research group in Potsdam, Germany.
  
Actions proposed by developing countries were more encouraging, though.
  
Their measures, if implemented, could lead to a cut of between five and 20 percent by 2020 over a "business-as-usual" scenario, said Schaeffer.
  
Curbs by this group of countries need to be in the order of 15-30 percent over "business-as-usual" trends to meet the 2 C (3.6 F) target or lower.
  
Meanwhile, a November 14-15 summit of Asia-Pacific powers in Singapore, including the United States, China and Russia, will spell out a commitment for a "good agreement" in Copenhagen, according to a draft declaration seen by AFP on Friday.
  
"We believe that global emissions will need to peak over the next few years, and be reduced to 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, recognising that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries," it said.
  
In Australia, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd warned fear campaigns sought to derail the Copenhagen process.
  
Rudd blasted those who denied climate change was caused by human activity, those who refused to act on the evidence, or those who wanted other countries to act first.
  
"As we approach Copenhagen, these three groups of climate skeptics are quite literally holding the world to ransom," he told policy thinktank the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
  
"They are a minority. They are powerful. And invariably they are driven by vested interests."

Date created : 2009-11-06