What next for North Korea’s heir apparent?

In a Q&A with France 24, an expert sheds light on the obscure figure and prospective policies of Kim Jong-un, 29, who will likely succeed his father, Kim Jong-il, who died on Saturday.

By Sarah LEDUC (text)

Pierre Rigoulot is the editor of the academic Social History Journal (Cahiers d’Histoire Sociale), which focuses on the history of communism, socialism and trade unionism, and the author of the 2003 book North Korea: Rogue State.

He anwers FRANCE 24's questions about the challenges facing Kim Jung-un.

Why is Kim Jung-un succeeding his father?
Pierre Rigoulot: The late Kim Jong-il was disappointed with his two oldest sons, so Kim Jong-un was his only choice left. The oldest was caught trying to travel to Tokyo’s Disneyland resort using a fake Dominican passport, an embarrassment that ruled him out, while the second son was considered too effeminate for the role. Kim Jong-un was the only one left for the job.

But, he has only been groomed for the role for one year, something that may well undermine his authority. His father had two decades of training under his father Kim Il-sung from the 1970s. And the young Kim is only 29. Being that young can be a real obstacle to consolidating power in the Far East.

What does he need to do to establish himself in power?
PR: He will need the support of both the army [the fifth-biggest in the world] and also of his powerful uncle Chang Song-taek. Chang had risen quickly in the North Korean hierarchy before being purged from office and sent far away from the capital to “meditate” on his personal ambitions [he was reinstated as vice-chairman of the powerful National Defence Commission in 2010]. I suspect that he has closer ties to China than did his brother-in-law Kim [Jong-il].

It is not impossible that he will play the role of regent for Kim Jung-un. But this country is so isolated that it really is impossible to tell what scenarios are going to play out. What can be said is that when the dust settles, the axis of power that will define North Korea’s leadership will be either Kim and the army, Kim and Chang, or Chang and the army.

Is Kim Jung-un a potential reformer?
PR: No one knows anything about him, apart from the fact that he was educated in Switzerland and that he is Kim Jong-il’s chosen successor. But just because he was educated in Europe does not mean that he will necessarily want to open up the country. Look at Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge – its leadership studied at the Sorbonne University in Paris.

Kim has never expressed any view contrary to his father’s, but for that matter neither has anyone else in North Korea. Some of those who have escaped from the country speak out, but the North Korean diaspora is not huge and is actually of very little consequence to Pyongyang. North Korea is a perfectly totalitarian state.

What will Kim Jong-un’s first priorities be?
PR: What he should do is engage in dialogue with the West, renounce his country’s nuclear ambitions, receive overseas aid and begin to open his country up to the rest of the world. But that would weaken his position of power. None of his predecessors ever made such concessions.

Kim is inheriting a nuclear programme that is a threat to his country’s neighbours, a programme that keeps North Korea isolated from the rest of the world.

But at the same time the nuclear issue is a strong hand for Pyongyang because of its relationships with Pakistan, Iran and Syria, three countries with which it engages in illicit trade of nuclear materials and technology.

Relations with China are also of high importance. The Chinese want to see economic reforms in North Korea, but they don’t want the regime to collapse because the country is a useful buffer against a pro-Western country on its southern border. China also benefits from playing the “wise judge” in mediations between Pyongyang and the rest of the world.

Are the tenuous relations between Pyongyang and Washington under threat because of the death of Kim Jong-il?
PR: This is an unstable period. We don’t know if North Korea is going to engage in sabre-rattling to show the world it doesn’t want any meddling in its affairs, or if the country will continue negotiations with the West.

But there was already a long list of unknowns under Kim Jong-il. Although the late Kim was known as a fantasist prone to self indulgence, he was still a clever political operator. Both he and his father Kim Il-sung were adept at exploiting the weaknesses of the Western powers, and also of China, to their own advantage. They would promise reforms, reap the benefits and then bolt the door ever more firmly.