Latest update: 11/01/2012 

- Boko Haram - Christians - Goodluck Jonathan - Islamist militants - Nigeria - oil - unrest


Is Goodluck Jonathan's luck running out?

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan is facing a double challenge with a series of sectarian attacks by the Boko Haram Islamist group and deadly protests over a fuel subsidy removal.

By Leela JACINTO (text)
 

When he took over the presidency of Africa’s most populous nation in 2010, Goodluck Jonathan seemed destined to live up to his name. But that was until recently, when a steady drum-roll of bad news from Nigeria appeared to be reaching an alarming crescendo.

On two different fronts, Jonathan is facing challenges that are threatening the stability of Africa’s largest oil-producing nation.

Syndicate contentThe sect behind the bombings

A wave of violence blamed on the Boko Haram Islamist group has left dozens of people – mostly Christians – dead in Nigeria’s mainly Muslim north. The attacks have raised fears that the country’s long-simmering divisions could ignite a sectarian civil war.

On the economic front, the Nigerian president is facing another potentially debilitating storm with a nationwide strike to protest his government’s recent removal of fuel subsidies.

More than 10,000 enraged demonstrators took to the streets of Nigeria’s commercial capital of Lagos on Monday, bearing effigies of Jonathan with devil horns and fanged teeth. At least one person was killed in Lagos, and in the northern city of Kano another two died and at least 31 people were wounded in clashes with security officers.

Suddenly, the man with the distinctive hat seems to have lost the advantage of his name, which many Nigerians believed their president enjoyed.

“Does he still have good luck? No, not at all,” said Nnamdi Obasi, director of Safer Africa Group, a Canadian-based think tank, in an interview with FRANCE 24 from Lagos. “There was a lot of sentimentality about him and his candidacy. People felt a need to break away from the past, they wanted someone who was not part of the ruling set, who could bring new ideas. Over time, a lot of this sentiment has dissipated.”

Ring in the New Year, ring out the old subsidy

Public anger has been especially high following the Jonathan administration’s Jan. 1 decision to unilaterally scrap subsidies that kept gas prices low in the West African nation. The decision saw gas prices rise from $1.70 per gallon to at least $3.50 per gallon.

Despite the country’s oil wealth, most of Nigeria’s 160 million citizens survive on less than $2 a day, making the prospect of a cost of living hike extremely tough on the country’s poorest communities.

Monday’s demonstrations protesting the subsidy removal saw protesters wearing “Occupy Nigeria” T-shirts, inspired by those near Wall Street in New York. Facebook, the popular social networking site, has erupted with a number of “Occupy Nigeria” pages. A signed protest statement included the names of prominent Nigerian cultural figures such as playwright Wole Soyinka and novelist Chinua Achebe.

But scrapping the fuel subsidy is not a new issue. Economists have long argued that the fuel subsidies propped up a corrupt, wasteful and unsustainable system that saw billions of dollars of public funds siphoned to a cartel of fuel importers. The government estimates it will save around $6 billion this year by eliminating the subsidy, funds that will be used to upgrade Nigeria’s ageing infrastructure, which has forced the oil-rich country to import costly refined fuel because it lacks refining capacity.

The real problem, according to Obasi, was the timing and the way the decision was announced.

Most Nigerians were not expecting a subsidy scrap until the 2012 statement at the end of March. “The timing of the announcement, at the peak of the Christmas and New Year celebrations, when people have run down their wallets, was a problem,” said Obassi. “The government did not make a sufficient attempt to persuade citizens.”

Public alarm over the increasing intensity and sophistication of Boko Haram attacks has also been mounting in recent days. In a statement titled, “Let not this fire spread,” three Nigerian literary giants – including Soyinka and Achebe - called on the government to act decisively.

“The country's leadership should not view the incessant attacks as mere temporary misfortune with which the citizenry must learn to live; they are precursors to events that could destabilise the entire country,” the statement read.

Two speeches too late

Two speeches by Jonathan over the past two days addressing the twin challenges facing his administration give a measure of the double trouble confronting the Nigerian leader.

At a Sunday church service in the capital of Abuja, Jonathan admitted for the first time that there were Boko Haram sympathisers in his government and the security agencies. The situation, Jonathan warned, was “even worse than the civil war,” when more than a million people were killed in the 1967-1970 Biafran conflict.

On Saturday, in a nationally broadcast speech, the Nigerian president pleaded with his countrymen for support. "If I were in your shoes at this moment, I probably would have reacted in the same manner,” he said before going on to add, “I urge all Nigerians to eschew bitterness and acrimony to live together in harmony and peace.”

“He should have said what he said on Saturday night earlier,” said Obasi, referring to Jonathan’s initial failure to address the fuel subsidy removal. “I would think the president should have made the announcement himself.”

Instead, the shock New Year announcement of the fuel subsidy scrap was made by the country’s Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA). By the time Jonathan addressed the legitimate concerns of his people, it was already too late.

Not too late for a redemption song

Even as the nation was gripped by crippling strikes protesting the fuel subsidy removal, Boko Haram’s attacks continued unabated. On Monday, authorities in northeastern Nigeria said Boko Haram gunmen killed a State Security Service official as he left a mosque.

Months before the 2011 Christmas Day attacks fueled a new round of Boko Haram violence, US intelligence and military officials were warning that the Nigerian Islamist group had forged ties with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and with the Somalia-based al Shabaab militant group.

The latest attacks are bound to bring up questions of Nigerian intelligence failures. Jonathan’s weekend speech admitting that there were Boko Haram sympathisers in the government and security agencies is not likely to allay most Nigerians’ security fears.

Some experts note that as a Christian, Jonathan has to tread more carefully while handling the Boko Haram crisis. “In this situation, the thing is not to leave yourself bare to accusations of heavy handedness or acting in a way that further radicalises northern youths, driving them to the enemy camp,” said Obasi.

But Obasi believes all is not yet lost for Nigeria’s embattled president. “In the long term, he can redeem himself if he can move fast enough on, for instance, improving the (country’s moribund) power sector or if Nigerians can see the benefits of removing the fuel subsidy,” said Obasi.

The question is, will Jonathan sing his redemption song before it’s too late. Luck is sometimes defined as being in the right time at the right place. It remains to be seen if Goodluck Jonathan can live up to his name.


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I have a dream

I agree with you 100% ola-lekan. If we are patient enough, we will have a beautiful coultry once again. A place where EVERYONE lives in peace and harmony. This is my dream, and I know most of Nigerians have the same one. Thank you Sir / Madam for your honest and thoughtful words...We live in hope eh??

President Goodluck Janathan is brave and courageous.

i wish to let the world knows that the move of our president to scrap the waste called "oil subsidy" is brave and courageous.The 'gang up' by some groups is expected. it's like the Mexician government attempt to eliminate drugs in Mexico. Those opposed to the removal either have interest in the subsidy or have no interest in the future generation. The world should know its not every one in nigeria that are myopic minded. million of us are in support of the president action. we endorse his brave decision. Prosperity will vindicate the president. we know it will be painful initially, but smiles will come after. Nigeria will be a great country soon.

Be Patient

It is either increase the fuel price and keep the profits in Nigeria, or leave it how it was and let the fuel be sold on the black market to foreign countries. This is the first non-military government since independence and they can not be blamed for the past happenings. Nigeria is like a garden, and the new government has to do a lot of weeding. Goodluck has a dream and it is for the better of the people. Give him time to do his job and stop blaming him and his government for things they did not cause. Once the corrupt oil barrons, military, police and high ranking buisnessmen are sorted out, Nigerians will definately begin to see changes for the better. All I am saying is, give the man a chance to prove himself and stop putting blame where it doesn't belong. less

Facts

Majority of the comments here make no iota of sense, putting the blame on irrelevant variables such as missionaries and suggesting nonsense "solutions", such as breaking up the country, that will only escalate the problem.
People such as Wambattu below are obviously muslims who want to shift blame from their senseless acts of violence onto others such as missionaries that the region encountered centuries ago and have no bearing in the current state of affairs.
If anyone had taken a class in US History or at least read or watched presentations about it, you should know how effective the federal government can be in hodling its country together, giving the right tools and coordination. The federal government of Nigeria is to blame in all of this, they are the ones that have failed, royally, to invest in the country in areas such as infrastructure, security, eductaion, affirmative action laws, etc (all of which result in opportunities for its citizens) and foster good quality of life and safeguard the society againts such threats. If not for these investments, would the western countries of today be able to deal with such threats? I don't think so. With most of its citizens unemployed even after college graduation, the saying that "an idle mind is the devil's workshop" comes into play here. If they had a opporunities for regular 9 to 5 jobs and other opportunities to occupy their idle days, I doubt there will be these sort of nonsense happening. These are all frustrated people who after ages of enduring the government's neglect are now rising up as one group or another guerilla army to demand and take what the government has failed to deliver as basic rights of its citizens. Unfortunately, some have also attached religion into the mix and evolved into terroritst groups. I saw this coming ages ago with the way that the government was and still is being run by illitrates that know nothing about public administration and are only concerned about looting the country while all sectors continue to fail.
The issue of discrimination is another big problem since the government has failed to acknowledge and ensure that nobody is discrimated against for any reason as this is the order of the day in a country of hundreds of ethnic groups and various religions and the presidency has only rotated between just two ethnic groups and two religions termed "north" and "south". How do you divide a country with hundreds of ethnic groups and many religions? In Bayelsa state alone, ther are problems of the "majority" ethnic group being the only ones getting a chance at and governing the state. What does your "state of origin" matter when you are a citizen of the republic and should have equal opportunity to all things? Clearly, breaking up the country is not the solution but another problem in itself because there will still be various ethnic groups and religions in their respective broken up regions hence still the same problems. The government simply needs to amend the contitution to include equal protection/opportunity for ALL its citizens. They also have to go further to remove anything that has to do with being a secular state so that no state can invoke religious laws, just as the northern states are currently doing. And instead of doing everything federally, they also need to know how to layer areas such as security from local/state to the federal level rather than have a cumbersome federal police that is in fact more corrupt than if there were none at all.
Now everyone in the country is suffering for it. The good thing is that not even the stupid government officials are safe/secure. With all these failures of the federal government, if the federal government still fails to acknolwdge and pursue the core problems then the country is essentially heading for worse than a failed state. As much as we place honor where honor is due, we ought to also place blame where it is due and in this case, the Federal Government of Nigeria has been a failure to ite citizens so far hence the issues at hand and they need to move fast and wisely to turn things around. I will like to see how they intend to resolve these issues long term.

Part of the speach from the President might help you understand.... Despite being a major oil producer, Nigeria has not invested in the infrastructure needed to produce refined fuel, so has to import much of its petrol.
With the subsidy, fuel was much cheaper in Nigeria than neighbouring countries, so some of it was smuggled abroad.
Members of parliament have called on President Jonathan to reconsider, but he made a televised address on Saturday to defend the the subsidy cut.
"We must act in the public interest, no matter how tough, for the pains of today cannot be compared to the benefits of tomorrow," he said.
The deregulation of the petroleum sector was, he insisted, the best way to curb corruption and ensure the survival and growth of the economy.
"The truth is that we are all faced with two basic choices... either we deregulate and survive economically, or we continue with a subsidy regime that will continue to undermine our economy."
He said that top government officials would, from this year, take a 25% pay cut, and foreign trips would also be reduced.
The government says it will spend the $8bn (£5bn) it saves each year by scrapping the subsidy on improving health, education and the country's erratic electricity supply.
However, many Nigerians fear it is more likely to end up in the pockets of corrupt officials

comment

i knw stueborn goodluck will nthear what people are sayin nw untill nigerians remove him

IS GOODLUCK ,LUCK RUNNING OUT?

DEFINITELY YES,GOODLUCK JONATHAN HAS RAN OUT OF LUCK. GEJ HAS QUICKLY FORGOTTEN THAT HE WAS VOTED IN BY THE PEOPLE OF THIS GREAT NATION,AND THAT ALL HE NEEDS TO DO IS TO DO THEIR BIDDING WHICH FAILURE WILL LEAD TO HIS IMPEACHMENT.THE MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE HAS SPOKEN THAT THE REMOVED SUBSIDY SHOULD BE REVERSED FOR THE PAST 8DAYS RUNNING GEJ HAS TURNED HIS DEAF EAR TO THIS WORDS OF WISDOM. IF HE CONTINUE TO HARDENED HIS MIND SURELY HE AND HIS CABINET WILL SOON BE DESTROYED,. A WORD IS ENOUGH FOR THE WISE .GEJ HEED THE VOICE OF THE PEOPLE OTHERWISE YOUR END IS VERY MUCH INSIGHT. MINISTER OF FINANCE-OKONJO IWEALA, MINISTER OF PETROLEUM ALLISON MADUEKE AND THE CBN GOVERNOR LAMIDO SANUSI SHOULD ALL RESIGNED THEIR APPOINTMENTS OTHERWISE THE MASSES WILL SURELY RISE AGAINST THEM SOONEST,THEIR POLICIES HAS BEEN ANTI=MASSES OR ANTI-PEOPLE.THIS GREAT NATION HAS BEEN TAGGED A FAILLED NATION BY SANUSI AND OTHERS,NIGERIA WILL NOT COLLAPSED IF THE SUBSIDY IS REVERSED, WE ARE MORE THAN CONQUEROR, WE HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH RESOURCES THAT CAN KEEP US GOING. ALL OUR LEADERS ARE CORRUPT THAT IS JUST OUR PROBLEM,ELIMINATE CORRUPTION IN NIGERIA ,NIGERIA WILL BE A BETTER PLACE FOR ALL TO LIVE,.

Keep away

The problem Nigerians are facing right now is the former leader

Nigeria and PMS subsidy removal

There is nothing particularly wrong in the Govt decision. What is wrong is the timing and the failure to carry the people along.A wrong that has taken decades can accommodate few months for consultations and public debates. What should be done is to continue to appeal to the public understanding and fine tunning the accountability process to ensure we are not leaving a cabal for another cabal. Enough of Govt deceit of subsidy without accurate data on local consumption of PMS. Enough of deceit in bridging costs. Fuel is generally sold out of petrol stations in the north and prices vary and are above the national rate of #65 (Naira). Govt should concentrate on the serious issue of security. No economy can thrive in an unsecured environment. A word is enough for the wise.

Be your brother/sister's keeper...

Fellow Nigerians, please let us control our emotions and desist from war mongering. The situation is critical, we should all be looking out for each other and report any suspiscious events to teams across the country which should be vetted before they assume this Office. Secondly, all mopeds, motor cycles should be grounded until further notice, at least we are aware this is the vehicle predominantly used to carry out these despicable acts. Finally, the president should have kept the intelligence of having BH sympathisers in the govt and use trusted means to flush them out. Never mind its not all lost but he should be humble to seek advice from other nations who have contained terrorist activities with immediate effect, the UK, USA, Israel et al. Please keep your eyes peeled and your ears opened as you go about your business and let us continue to pray unceaselessly. Amen.

Revolution is the answer in Nigeria

Revolution is the answer in Nigeria. Everyone including the President are currupt to the bone. All the legislators and Ministers are rogues. The are there enriching their pockets. We need run all of them out of office and charge them all with crimes against the people. These arrests must include that ugly Olusegun Obasanjo. He is a useless man and President Goodluck Jonathan is nothing but an idiot as well. They should all be tried and imprisoned. Too many Nigerians are suffering, some cannot afford three meals per day. They live in shambles, no road, good water is elusive, no electricity in a so called Giant of Africa. This is a shame. Corruption is a means of life in Nigeria and that was why all its citizen are fleeing the country daily. Start a revolution immediately and we are going to join you.

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