Ulysse Gosset – Welcome to France 24 for this new edition of The Talk de Paris. Today, we will be looking at Zimbabwe and at the complete deadlock there. The Presidential Election took place a month ago but nobody can tell who will be running that country. The ruthless dictator – and the world’s oldest Head of State (84) – Robert Mugabe is clinging to power. Our guest today is his main opponent and the leader of the opposition, Morgan Tsvangirai – who claims he has won the election. He has taken refuge in South Africa, and the images of this former miner and trade unionist being pounded have been around the world and made Morgan Tsvangirai a symbol of repression. The leader of the Movement for Democratic Change and official opposition candidate has had to flee to South Africa. He is with us on a live lin-up with Johannesburg. Good day, Mr Tsvangirai.

Morgan Tsvangirai –Good morning !

Ulysse Gosset - Do you see yourself as a political exile, or as a refugee? You left Zimbabwe three weeks ago. When do you think you’ll be able to return without putting your life at risk?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Thank you very much. I do not consider myself to be in exile. I simply consider myself to have embarked on a diplomatic effort to try to address the political impasse in Zimbabwe. Therefore, once that has been accomplished – i.e. once the political impasse has been unlocked – I will return home where I have very responsibilities to discharge.

Ulysse Gosset - How long do you think it will be before you can return? Mr Mugabe had you beaten up and we’ve all seen the dreadful images. Do you think your life is in danger and that you could be assassinated if you returned to Harare?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, the risk has always been there ever since I challenged Robert Mugabe when we formed the Movement for Democratic Change in 2000. The risk has always been there. But that has never deterred from challenging Robert Mugabe, as has been witnessed by the number of elections that we have conducted. So I will be going back in spite of that potential risk.

Ulysse Gosset - More specifically, do you think Robert Mugabe has made plans to eliminate you? Are you one of the targets of the regime? Are you afraid for your life?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, I know, from reports, from threats (from Mugabe’s verbal and psychological threats), that I am the prime target. Because I provide the leadership to challenge [his] dictatorship. So I am the prime target. Whether he’s going to discharge that execution or elimination is another matter. But I know that Mugabe, the ZANU-PF and other zealots that do not want to see democracy achieved in our country [see me] as their biggest obstacle to permanent power.

Ulysse Gosset - Do you know, Mr President, that some people have criticised you for leaving your country, and that some are wondering if it might have been more useful for you to stay on the spot. Why have you left Zimbabwe and what do you have to say about those criticisms?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, those criticisms [have] no justification. A leader does not just [stand still]. You find alternatives to try to solve the problem. I am not the first leader who has left a country in order to launch a campaign for freedom. Robert Mugabe himself [has been] outside the country. George [inaudible - Nguomo] left the country into exile (at one point [indeed] under very suspicious circumstances).  So the question here is not my presence in the country. The question is what agenda we are pursuing. Inside the country to mobilise people and outside the country to mobilise international opinion in order to resolve the crisis. That is the challenge. My physical presence does not mean that my leadership is not there. After all, Morgan Tsvangirai is one of the leaders of the movement. There are others inside the country who are discharging their various responsibilities – especially [with regard to] the humanitarian crisis that we face. But Morgan Tsvangirai remains the symbol and the leader of the movement whether physically inside the country or outside it.

Ulysse Gosset - So you think you’re more useful outside Zimbabwe in the safety of South Africa…

Morgan Tsvangirai - I am not in the safety of South Africa. I have been embarking on a diplomatic African effort to try to persuade Robert Mugabe to concede defeat on an election that he has lost. I am [asking] various African leaders to help us and press upon Robert Mugabe that he has lost and that he should retire. So that effort (engaging these African leaders) can not be discharged by anyone other than myself.

Ulysse Gosset - If today you were invited to a direct face-to-face meeting with President Robert Mugabe, would you agree to negotiate the future of the country and end the deadlock?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Absolutely. That has been my demand. What is needed here is a negotiated process that will see Robert Mugabe exit honourably and provide security to all those who feel very insecure about the democratic change that is taking place in the country. What must be accepted is that the people have spoken and that their voice and their will must be respected. That’s our fundamental position. So Robert Mugabe and myself must sit down and chart a new way forward for the country. We cannot hold the country to ransom with his intransigence.

Ulysse Gosset - Some observers have compared the situation in Zimbabwe to the Titanic, arguing that it is sinking. Are you that pessimistic? Everybody knows you have a staggering 160,000 percent inflation rate. Is Zimbabwe Africa’s Titanic?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, I’m sure the analogy of the Titanic is very, very instructive. That you have a country that has been one of the potential success stories in Africa but that has all of a sudden, due to policies that Mugabe has pursued, run aground [is undeniable]. So, yes, I think that analogy [fits quite] perfectly. A country that [had a thriving economy] 20 or 30 years ago [has] an economy that is almost on its knees [today]. The inflation is around 160,000 percent, 3,000,000 to 4,000,000 Zimbabweans have left their country (not because of their own free will but because of economic and political reasons). This is a country in crisis and therefore yes, certainly, it is actually a sinking Titanic.

Ulysse Gosset - How do you explain that the population that voted for you is not more mobilised? Why aren’t there any street demonstrations calling for the election results to be acknowledged? Why haven’t the people come down into the streets?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, I’ve heard that people talk about “people power”. But you must understand that, over the last 30 years, Mugabe’s State-sponsored violence has suppressed any expression of discontent. He has responded to any expression of discontent by violence. He has been beating up people. He has been using the army and other paramilitary units to make sure that this population is captive and does not express itself. I suppose, as far as that is concerned, that he has succeeded in making the population captive to his view. But [that] certainly does not mean that the people of Zimbabwe support his view. They are just afraid.

Ulysse Gosset - I think the time has come to review your political career. There is a tradition on this programme to produce a Profile. France 24 journalists K. Chabour and K. Spencer produced yours. Let’s watch it.

Profile – This footage of Morgan Tsvangirai with a fractured skull and swollen eye was beamed around the world, attesting to the brutality unleashed by Robert Mugabe’s regime. Last year, the leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition group, the MDC, was arrested and beaten up by police following an anti-government rally. Despite the country’s climate of fear and intimidation, Tsvangirai has worked assiduously to build up a credible opposition force in Zimbabwe.

Born in 1952, the eldest son of a bricklayer, he left school at 16 to become a textile weaver. He then worked in a mine and promptly became the leader of the mining union.

A charismatic figure and orator, Tsvangirai was a prolific trade-unionist. He orchestrated a series of strikes against President Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party, and slowly grew into an opposition politician. His support growing, in 1999 he helped set up the Movement for Democratic Change as an alternative to ZANU-PF. Four years later, accused of plotting a coup against Mugabe, he was arrested and faced the death penalty – but was ultimately acquitted. In 2005, he overcame a split within the MDC and had to fight to restore his reputation as a leader.

If he manages to dethrone Mugabe and become Zimbabwe’s next president, his main challenge will be to turn around the country’s economic crisis.

Ulysse Gosset – Another question about your situation today: do you think you will be able to return to Zimbabwe before Robert Mugabe leaves power? And when do you think you will be able to do so?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, I think that, at the moment, what you must understand, is that there is a process that is taking place. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has convened a verification exercise in which all the parties that contested the presidential election will be represented. It would appear that there are various figures that have been thrown around. The MDC has got its own figures, ZANU has got its own figures, the other opposition [parties] have got their own figures. But, because these figures were displayed at various polling stations, I am sure that the verification exercise will not be difficult. Because we will all have to compare the notes and compare the figures, and then ultimately come up with an outcome that everyone can agree to. Once that is done, then we [will know] who has won the election. And then I will take the necessary steps to go back.

Ulysse Gosset – So you think you will return after Electoral Commission announces the official results…

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, I am saying that that will probably be the most ideal time to reflect and say, “The results are now out, we are faced with various challenges, and perhaps it is time to consider to see whether I can go back or not (depending on the situation on the ground).”

Ulysse Gosset – Let’s talk about the leaks regarding the results. People say that, today, according to the Electoral Commission, these are unconfirmed results. The opposition has won the presidential election with 47 percent of the vote but you don’t have an absolute majority. What is your response? Do you question those figures or do you think they are right?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Those are merely speculative numbers thrown around by ZANU-PF in order to justify their position that there is going to be a runoff. Our own figures demonstrate quite clearly that the MDC, including myself as the presidential candidate, won that election decisively. So there is no need for a runoff. Those figures have no basis. They are intended to create an impression that nobody [won] outright. But, besides, if I may make an argument, if you add my numbers (even at 47 percent) together with my colleagues’ [figures, you get to] (over 57 percent). That’s more votes for the opposition than [for] Mugabe himself. It would have made more sense for the opposition, if it [had got] 43 percent to demand a runoff rather than the incumbent demanding a runoff when he has lost [by] such [a long stretch].

Ulysse Gosset – Is the 35 percent figure for Mr Mugabe credible or did he get fewer votes than that, in your view?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, I don’t know. I don’t know whether that 43 percent or whatever percent [is accurate]. All I know is that, as far as we are concerned, we have won over 51 percent and Mugabe has around 43%. Which gives us an almost 9 points’ lead over his [result].

Ulysse Gosset – So a runoff is out of the question even if, officially, the Commission decides you haven’t got an absolute majority?

Morgan Tsvangirai - A runoff is [out of the] question for [three reasons].

Firstly, the MDC has won the election. For [a whole] month, they have not been revealing those results, which means that they have either been tampering with those results, they have been manipulating those results, or massaging those results. So the ZEC itself has totally been discredited by this delay.

Secondly, from our own results, which we collected from polling stations, the ZEC has already published those results by posting them at various polling stations. What that means is that the MDC collected all those results and has come out with a result that we feel is credible. And that results gives us a decisive victory. So there is no need for a runoff.

Thirdly, how can you have a runoff when Mugabe, over the last month, has been unleashing State-sponsored violence against our structures and decimating our electoral structures on the ground? Burning the houses of our people, […] refugees in our country, beating up people and hitting people? How do you run an election under those circumstances?

Some people today think that a solution has to be found. If there isn’t a runoff, is it possible to set up a future government of national union? Are you prepared to negotiate a government of national union?

Let me just make it clear. An election has been conducted. There is an obvious winner. In normal circumstances, that winner must be inaugurated. That is [what would happen] in a normal democracy. Democracy at the moment is on trial when the people suggest that the obvious loser now wants to negotiate the transfer of power. I think it’s ridiculous to make that suggestion. However, we believe as MCD that, being the winner, we must be allowed to how magnanimity towards the other parties and create a government of national union. We do recognise that there is a need to manage that transition and to create security for everyone. But, certainly, we have a situation where the loser [wants] to negotiate on his own term [and] I think it’s ridiculous and undemocratic.

Ulysse Gosset – Today, in your mind, are you already the future president of Zimbabwe? Do you feel that you are the new president of Zimbabwe?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Absolutely. I have no doubt in my mind that I have won this election. I have no doubt in my mind that the people of Zimbabwe have shown their confidence in my leadership. I have no doubt in my mind that we have the responsibility of addressing the people’s needs with a specific programme (which we issued during the campaign and [which] the people support.

 
Ulysse Gosset – Mr President, let’s listen to a question we have received over the Internet. It is a question about the future of Zimbabwe from Elodie Bouchot, a student in Paris.

Elodie Bouchot - The violent crackdown on dissidents against Mugabe clearly shows his refusal to release the reigns of power. My question is what the opposition’s attitude will be if Mugabe, in spite of a second defeat, still refuses to step down

What would be your reaction if Mr Mugabe refuses to leave power? Have you got a strategy should this occur?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, our strategy is very, very simple. Mr Mugabe will be staying in power by default. And therefore is illegitimate. And therefore the crisis continues. It is inevitable that Robert Mugabe has no solution to the people’s plight, has no solution to the crisis the country is facing. Just to retain power for power’s sake is not a solution. And therefore the problem of Zimbabwe becomes a regional problem. And that’s why we are mobilising regional leaders [so that they] realise that they have to impress upon Mugabe [the need] to accept defeat and go into retirement, and allow the country to move forward. We do have a clear strategy how Robert Mugabe can not force his will on the people.

Ulysse Gosset – Mr President, are you afraid of a confrontation, blood bath of coup d’état?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Look, we don’t subscribe to the values of violence or unorthodox means of obtaining power. That’s why, for the last ten years, we have been at the receiving end of Mugabe’s violence. We have had to fight a dictatorship using democratic means. And there is no way we can review our position and say “Let there be a military coup, let there be violence, let us resort to military action in order to remove the dictator.” It’s not necessary. The people of Zimbabwe have suffered enough. What they want is peaceful reconstruction of their country.

Ulysse Gosset – Have you got any information regarding the army? What’s the position of the military? Are they prepared for democratic transition or could they hang on to power with Mr Mugabe?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, we do understand that there are a few individuals who are taking that hard-line position [and] do not want to relinquish power. But they don’t have a solution once the people have voted. Either they have to declare themselves that they are ruling by decree (in other words that they have subverted the will of the people) and see how they can sustain that position. But they also know that the international community and African leaders are against any attempt at a military takeover or any attempt at military rule.

Ulysse Gosset – What role are South Africa and its president playing? We have a question from our correspondents there, Caroline Dumay Alex Duval Smith.

Caroline Dumay - Mr Tsvangirai, I have a question about South Africa and South Africa’s role. You’ve rejected President Thabo Mbeki as continued SADC mediator. Now I wonder if that’s because you consider his mediation to be too narrow and would actually rather have a mediator with a higher profile who could broaden the mediation effort.

Can South Africa put direct pressure on Mugabe?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, let me say that South Africa [could] play a very critical role in the resolution of the Zimbabwean crisis. If it wished to take a strong position, the Zimbabwean crisis would be resolved overnight. Why do I say that? Because the Zimbabwean crisis is no longer just a foreign policy crisis for South Africa. It is a domestic crisis for South Africa. And therefore it is in the best interest of South Africa to ensure that the Zimbabwean crisis is resolved peacefully.

At the moment, we are talking about 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 Zimbabweans crossing the [border] and causing a totally unnecessary social and economic burden on South Africa. So, yes, South Africa has the responsibility for taking the leadership but it can not afford to [be a mediator and take sides at the same time]. And I think that’s where they problem arises.

Ulysse Gosset – Is Mbeki a good mediator or are you expecting somebody else to play that role?

Morgan Tsvangirai - Well, what we have said is that this crisis in Zimbabwe has been with us for almost nine years. In March last year, President Thabo Mbeki was appointed mediator in order to prepare for elections. He has played his part. It was because of lack of effort. But Mugabe proceeded to [set] an election date unilaterally. But I think there were positive outcomes [from] that mediation. We are allowed, now, to display for the first time the results of the election in polling stations. [The election was relatively peaceful]. And I think the objective of the dialogue literally came to an end at the time we went to the election. After that, there is no [place] for mediation because the results are known. Therefore, we do not foresee a situation where President Mbeki will have a role. However, we believe that SADC, which initiated the dialogue on the crisis, have a responsibility [for] launching another initiative which [should be] broad based [and focus] on the transfer of power and not at the elections or election disputes.

Ulysse Gosset – Are you thinking of a solution on the lines of what happened in Kenya, where there was an international mediator, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. Would you like the UN to get involved? Do you think what happened in Kenya could be applied to Zimbabwe?

Morgan Tsvangirai - There are differences with the Kenyan example. The difference is that, in Kenya, the results were not known. In Zimbabwe, the results were published at various polling stations. So, as far as we are concerned, the mediation in Kenya was about sharing power. In Zimbabwe, it is about transferring power from a regime which has lost the election to a regime which has been given a new mandate. So, whilst there are similarities, I think that what is important is [that] people recognise that difference and appreciate that what we are dealing with is the intransigence of a man who has lost the election openly, and is refusing to transfer power. So, yes, perhaps there needs to be regional…

Ulysse Gosset – Who is the man who could organise this transfer of power? Are you thinking of Kofi Annan and the United Nations? Who could help you to end the deadlock?

Morgan Tsvangirai - I think that any mediator or group of mediators would be helpful. I don’t have anyone in particular in mind. But I suppose that somebody who enjoys the confidence of all the parties in the region will be useful in unlocking that [situation].

Ulysse Gosset – France will become President of the European Union in July this year. What would you expect from Europe and what do you expect from Nicolas Sarkozy if the crisis were not resolved when he becomes leader of the European Union for six months?

Morgan Tsvangirai - I am sure that, when Mr Sarkozy takes over leadership of the European Union, there will be no significant [change in] the European Union’s position on Zimbabwe unless there is a significant [display] of reform [from] the Zimbabwean government. So, as far as I’m concerned, the European Union’s policy will remain consistent within the parameters set out by other countries.

Ulysse Gosset – Do you want Europe to get more involved? The UN Security Council has agreed there is a problem. What do you expect of Europe? Or is the solution with the UN?

Morgan Tsvangirai - I know that current UN discussions are informal so the UN will not come out with a resolution. But I also know that the Secretary General has been given the responsibility of appointing an investigator to come an investigate the current violence in Zimbabwe. And I hope that the UN Secretary General, together with the support of the Europeans and everyone, will come to investigate the current violence and undertake that mission in order to stem the violence and solve the crisis.

Ulysse Gosset – Some people are thinking about power sharing in the absence of an agreement between President Mugabe and you. Could a third man emerge? One of Mr Mugabe’s former Finance Ministers, Mr Makoni also ran. Could you form an alliance with him?

Morgan Tsvangirai - We do have an alliance with all the opposition forces. As far as I am concerned, there is no [third man] because the results are very, very clear. The winner, with an absolute majority, is the MDC. ZANU-PF is in the opposition. Mr Makoni has no member of Parliament to talk about. But he has a significant following and therefore can not be excluded when a government of national healing is [formed]. But one has to understand the matrix [underlying] the political results of this election.

Ulysse Gosset – You were talking about the risks of the conflict in Zimbabwe spilling over its borders. We all remember the Chinese ship that was turned back (with weapons, apparently). What do you say to China and what do you say to those who would be tempted to support the current regime?

Morgan Tsvangirai - The MDC has no hostile intentions against China. But I think that for the Chinese government to support arms shipments to Zimbabwe to suppress the people of Zimbabwe – and oppress the people of Zimbabwe is unacceptable. So that policy difference has nothing to do with Chinese-Zimbabwean relations. It has everything to do with the Chinese government [providing] partisan supporting to Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF, [in whom] the people of Zimbabwe have no confidence. That’s where we have a big, big, big problem.

Ulysse Gosset – Regarding international relations, do you think the Europeans, for example, should be talking to Mr Mugabe? Should he be invited to a summit between Europe and Africa? Should he remain an interlocutor or should he be sidelined?

Morgan Tsvangirai - For a very long time, the European Union has pursued a policy of isolation [regarding] this regime. I think it is a worthwhile policy to isolate this regime. But also for a very long time the European Union has used incentives for good behaviour. And those incentives have included that, if there is significant reform on the part of Robert Mugabe, [inaudible]. He has not dared to do that. And therefore I think tha the European Union is justified in continuing to ostracise this regime. I think that, at some stage, if Robert Mugabe is prepared to stop the violence, observe democratic rules and standards, observe the will of the people, I think he should be talked to. But only subject to his acceptance of a normal democratic leader in the family of nations.

Ulysse Gosset – We are reaching the end of the programme. I would like to quote Mr Mugabe. He was asked how long he would stay in power, and replied, “Until the age of 100.” When you hear him say things like that, what do you feel like saying back?

Morgan Tsvangirai - The message he is putting across is that he wants to die in office. Now we can not have a man die in office just for his own ego and his own selfish aims. The people of Zimbabwe have realised that Mugabe’s [regime] has reached its sunset, that he should go into retirement, and that we should move on as a country. He can not hold the country to ransom just because he wants to stay in power. And I think that is the message he is putting across.

Ulysse Gosset - Thank you, Morgan Tsvangirai, for being our guest here at France 24. That’s the end of this Talk of Paris. Thank you to Caroline Dumay, Alex Duval-Smith, our correspondents in South Africa, who helped us to prepare for this programme, and to the rest of the France 24 team. See you soon.