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The new chairman of Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom, Viktor A. Zubkov, was ranked the country's 84th most influential politician in 2006. But he's about to get a lot more powerful as Gazprom trumpets its grand ambitions for global domination.
In 2006, Russia’s leading public-opinion research institute asked some experts to rank the country’s top 100 politicians in terms of influence. Viktor A. Zubkov, a little-known bureaucrat and former collective-farm manager of pure Soviet vintage, placed 84th.
Zubkov was subsequently plucked from relative obscurity by Vladimir Putin, and appointed prime minister. Today, with Putin himself in that post, Zubkov carries the less-illustrious title of ‘First Deputy Prime Minister’.
But that’s all piddling stuff compared to his latest incarnation as the newly-installed chairman of the omnipotent state gas monopoly, Gazprom. (He took over from the office’s previous occupant, a certain Dmitry Medvedev, who relinquished the chairmanship in May to move to the Kremlin’s presidential suite.)
Zubkov’s post puts him in pole position – alongside CEO Alexei Miller - in Gazprom’s race to establish itself as the planet’s undisputed energy overlord.
For those who accuse the Kremlin of using the gas giant as a foreign policy cudgel with which to browbeat other companies – not to mention entire countries – into submission, the future looks no less menacing.
Zubkov is already promising a business strategy that hinges on a fine balance between State and corporate interests.
The Russian government holds a 50.1% stake in Gazprom, and Zubkov is vowing to defend the State’s pivotal role - and even enlist it as a vital ally as the company spreads its tentacles into the global market.
The metaphor often applied to the Gazprom-Kremlin relationship is one of a revolving door – or musical chairs – between business and politics. But in many ways, it might be more apt to consider them as conjoined twins – an organic whole that lives in symbiosis and draws its sustenance from a common source.
And that organ is poised to grow to super-sized dimensions, if Zubkov and Miller bring their grand ambitions to fruition.
Gazprom is already a Brobdingnagian beast by any measure. It commands 17% of the world's gas reserves, furnishes a quarter of Europe's natural gas needs and represents some 8% of Russia's total GDP.
And it wields enormous influence beyond its own borders, as demonstrated in the recent past, when gas supplies were briefly cut to Ukraine in January 2006 over a price dispute. Ukraine and Belarus serve as vital transit points of gas to western Europe. Gazprom is once again in needly negotiations with Ukraine that could result in a near-tripling of the price it currently charges for its gas.
CEO Miller is unabashed about Gazprom’s prospects. With oil skirting $143 a barrel, Miller sees a golden opportunity. He envisions establishing natural gas filling stations across Europe. These would replace petrol and be far cheaper. He's reportedly looking for European partners.
And his chances of success are better than decent. Gazprom has already driven a wedge into Europe's efforts to forge a harmonized energy policy. (It's already complicating European plans for a southern pipeline under the Black Sea.)
As for the future, production is declining at Gazprom's Siberian fields, according to the International Herald Tribune. But the paper says Miller's talking to countries as diverse as India, Vietnam and Libya to shore up future production.
Those political pundits might want to reconsider Zubkov’s 84th ranking on the most-influential politicians’ list.
Douglas Herbert





