28 November 2009 - 14H25  

Dubai blackout over debt plans to hit Gulf markets
Traders follow the market's movement at the Stock Exchange in Kuwait City on September. A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.
Traders follow the market's movement at the Stock Exchange in Kuwait City on September. A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.
A foreign labourer pictured at the construction site of Dubai's Business Bay. A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.
A foreign labourer pictured at the construction site of Dubai's Business Bay. A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.
A general view shows Dubai's Business Bay, still under construction. A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.
A general view shows Dubai's Business Bay, still under construction. A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.
VIDEO: Global markets get jitters following Dubai debt fears. Duration: 01:43
VIDEO: Global markets get jitters following Dubai debt fears. Duration: 01:43

AFP - A lack of details on how Dubai plans to pay off its 80-billion-dollar debt mountain will hit Gulf stock markets sharply this week when they trade for the first time since news broke of the emirate's problems, analysts predict.

Abu Dhabi, Dubai's oil-rich neighbour in the United Arab Emirates, is widely expected to use some of its wealth to rescue Dubai, but speculation is rife about what terms and conditions it might impose on any bailout.

"Abu Dhabi could quite easily resolve the problems for Dubai if it wanted to but the question is how and at what price," said economist Jan Randolph, director of sovereign risk at the IHS Global Insight consultancy.

"Part of this price now seems to involve the creditors that are effectively being asked to share in the restructuring efforts," he said.

Dubai World, a state controlled conglomerate whose businesses include international ports operator DP World and construction giant Nakheel, announced on Wednesday that it was seeking to suspend debt payments for six months while the group is restructured.

The contract most directly affected is the redemption due in December of a 3.5-billion-dollar (2.9 billion euro) Islamic bond issued by Nakheel, the company behind Dubai's iconic Palm Jumeirah tree-shaped artificial island.

The emirate's borrowings are the equivalent of a full year's gross domestic product and Dubai World's overall debt of 59 billion dollars comprises three-quarters of the emirates's total debt.

Dubai's government chose to unveil the shock debt moratorium request immediately before a four-day break for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, giving regional stock exchanges no chance to react.

European markets partly recovered on Friday after sharp falls a day earlier, but analysts expect the Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets to weaken on Monday when they reopen after the long weekend.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, it will take even longer.

The Kuwait and Qatar bourses resume trade on Tuesday, Bahrain on Wednesday and Saudi Arabia on December 5.

Oliver Bell of Swiss bank Pictet thinks the Dubai World crisis is a "disaster" for Middle East and North Africa equity markets and is braced for a big sell-off, he told the UK's Citywire financial news website.

When news of Dubai World's problems first broke, he "hoped it was a miscommunication," but a later statement from Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, head of Dubai's Supreme Fiscal Committee, confirmed Bell's worst fears.

"This was more alarming as it suggests it has been carefully planned and they knew markets would be very concerned. Now we are in a vacuum of no news again," he said.

"If all news stays as it is the UAE market will sell off very sharply when it reopens after Eid," Citywire quoted him as saying.

On Thursday, Sheikh Ahmed said "further information will be made available early next week," but IHS Global Insight's Randolph said Global World's announcement has raised many questions that will be hard for Dubai to answer.

"This was a crisis waiting to happen; all the tell tale signs were there. Many creditors assumed that the Dubai government/sovereign would support their investment and invested companies -- this is now in question," the analyst said.

Randolph pointed out that Abu Dhabi has the "all important" oil well and still generates trade surpluses from its exports. Relate article: Banks in firing line of Dubai debt

"Abu Dhabi is virtually debt-free and has huge assets -- including the largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World with 400 to 500 billion dollars in assets and at least four other smaller SWFs and finally foreign exchange reserves at about 33 billion dollars," he said.

But the economist believes Dubai needs to face up to its difficulties rather than relying completely on help from its richer neighbour.

"It is necessary that Dubai goes through this restructuring, to sort out the good assets from the bad, that which has an economically viable future and that which does not," Randolph said.

Kit Juckes, at London-based currency trading group ECU, said Dubai's debts are large "but are spread widely around the financial system if only because the Dubai story was so heavily marketed and widely understood."

"The longer-term damage is to the notion of an assumed state guarantee. It was taken for granted that Dubai would stand behind its commercial enterprises and that Abu Dhabi would stand behind Dubai," he said.

Sheikh Ahmed said the suspension was "carefully planned" and with "full knowledge of how the markets would react."

But Juckes' response is that, "to my mind, (he) simply fails to answer any of the questions the market is asking.

"Everyone will speculate about whether the request to re-schedule debt will succeed or lead to default, what other Dubai-based entities could suffer a similar fate, whether it could prove more widely contagious and which banks globally are most exposed."

The Dubai markets DFM Index closed on Wednesday at 2,070.89, up more than 40 percent from the start of the year but still down by two-thirds from its peak of 6,253.10 two years ago.

Rules stipulate that it cannot fall by more than 10 pct in one day.

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