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Latest update: 17/02/2012
- Alassane Ouattara - ECOWAS - Ethnic conflict - Ivory Coast - Laurent Gbagbo - military - United Nations
Does ECOWAS have the will and muscle for military intervention?
The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, has threatened to use force to oust incumbent Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo. But the military option could have dramatic and unforeseen consequences for the country and the region.
The West African regional bloc ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) has threatened an armed intervention if mediation efforts to resolve the political crisis in Ivory Coast fail. But while ECOWAS has intervened in much smaller countries in the past, the situation in Ivory Coast poses new challenges not just for the regional grouping, but for the entire continent.
The current political crisis in the world’s leading cocoa producing nation broke out after the Nov. 28, 2010, presidential runoff, when the international community recognised Alassane Ouattara as the winner, a result incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo has refused to acknowledge.
At an extraordinary session on Christmas Eve, ECOWAS issued a communiqué stating that if Gbagbo refused to relinquish power, it would have “no other option but to take all the necessary measures, including the use of legitimate force, to realize the aspirations of the Ivorian people."
But does ECOWAS have the means to carry out its threat?
"A military intervention is feasible,” said Rinaldo Depagne, a Senegal-based analyst at the International Crisis Group, in an interview with FRANCE 24. “ECOWAS has quite significant resources in terms of men and material."
ECOMOG (Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group) – which is the multilateral armed force established by ECOWAS – has intervened in regional crises in the past.
Established in 1990 to intervene in the civil war in Sierra Leone, ECOMOG has numbered up to 20,000 troops at its maximum. Besides the Sierra Leonean mission, ECOWAS has also intervened in the 1989-1996 Liberian Civil War.
Deployment within a relatively short period
To launch a military operation in Ivory Coast, ECOWAS should get the green light from the African Union and UN.
For ECOWAS, this would be an unprecedented intervention.
Not only were Sierra Leone and Liberia much smaller countries, they were also nations where the governments in place requested the help of foreign troops.
The organization could deploy troops to the main Ivorian city of Abidjan within a relatively short period, said Henry Boshoff of the Institute of Security Studies in Pretoria in an interview with the BBC.
"When the political decision is made, it will go to the chief of staff of ECOWAS – that is the military command,” said Boshoff. "They will then do the planning, they will ask then for troop-contributing countries to contribute the force, they will decide on the concept operation – how many troops – and then the readiness of the troops."
This could be done as in three to four weeks, Boshoff told the BBC.
The likelihood of military intervention in the near future remains subject to many other factors. While Senegal, Nigeria and Burkina Faso are more amenable to troop deployments, other West African nations are more reluctant.
Selling a foreign intervention to a sceptical home crowd
Traditionally neutral Ghana, for instance, has already said it would not send troops to Ivory Coast.
The Gambia, a tiny nation geographically surrounded by Senegal, is also opposed to the idea of military action – but it has only minor weight within ECOWAS.
As a West African economic powerhouse, Ivory Coast is home to a number of immigrants from neighbouring nations and Mali, Guinea and Benin, which have many citizens in Ivory Coast, fear a retaliation against their citizens in the case of an intervention.
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Gbagbo himself has repeatedly warned that a military intervention would destablize the region.
But in an interview with FRANCE 24, his rival, Ouattara, dismissed such fears. “Military intervention does not mean that the Ivory Coast will ignite,” said Ouattara, before adding: “All that needs to be done, as has been done in other African countries, is to come and get Gbagbo and remove him from the presidential palace.”
Nigeria, the most populous state in the West African regional grouping, is widely expected to supply the bulk of the forces for an Ivorian mission since it has the largest and most powerful army in the region.
But Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who is also the current ECOWAS chairman, has domestic problems ahead of the country’s critical April general election.
Nigerians are keenly aware of the lack of infrastructure and development besetting their own country and returning body bags is always a tricky issue for candidates on the campaign trail.
While there has been a broad trend toward democratic elections in the region, some member states still have longstanding “Big Men” leaders with questionable democratic credentials. The hypocrisy of dispatching troops to defend a dubiously elected African leader is not lost on local citizens.
‘A well organized military machine’
If ECOWAS does agree to dispatch troops to Abidjan, a teeming, skyscraper-lined city of six million, it will invariably be a high-risk operation.
During the ECOMOG missions in Sierra Leone and Liberia, the governments were besieged by rebels, but they had control of sea and airports, where ECOWAS military units could land.
In an interview with the AFP, Retired Gen. Ishola Williams, executive secretary of the Pan-African Strategic and Policy Research Group, categorically maintained that it “will not work”.
An intervention would be "dangerous because Laurent Gbagbo is not hanging by a thin thread,” says Depagne. "He has access to a well organized military machine. He also has a substantial portion of the population supporting him."
In December, the Ivorian chief of staff, Gen. Philippe Mangou, accompanied by a group of generals, pledged their allegiance to Gbagbo.
If the unity of the Ivorian armed forces were to waver in case of a conflict, Gbagbo could always count on the unwavering support of elite units, which include several thousand troops.
In 2005, Gbagbo created the Command Centre for Security Operations, which goes by the French acronym Cecos, which has 600 men who are officially responsible for fighting crime. But in reality, their only mission is to protect the regime.
For his part, Gbagbo’s controversial Youth Minister Charles Blé Goudé, also known as Gbagbo’s “Street General,” controls the Young Patriots, which is comprised of thousands of mostly young Gbagbo supporters who played a critical role in the anti-foreigner riots during the 2004-2006 Ivorian Civil War. In the event of a military intervention, Blé Goudé is very likely to mobilize the Young Patriots, which has turned into an armed militia infamous for violence and looting.
‘The nightmare scenario’
For Depagne, "the nightmare scenario” would be if an ECOWAS military intervention sparked a war between the New Forces rebel group led by Ouattara’s Prime Minister Guillaume Soro and the Ivorian armed forces with thousands of Liberian mercenaries joining whichever side best pays them.
During the 2002-2004 crisis, more than 10,000 Liberians participated in the Ivorian conflict. “This scenario would result in many refugees fleeing northward,” warns Depagne.
Because of Ivory Coast’s economic and political weight, a war could have considerable repercussions on neighbouring countries – including Liberia and Guinea – and could result in a game of dominoes throughout the region.
"The intervention could also lead to the emergence of micro rebellions in some parts of the country and the destruction of the economy. If Alassane Ouattara’s goal is to be able to observe the legality of the vote, he must also take into consideration the fact that the country must be governable,” concludes Depagne.
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(31) Reactions
NO WAY FOR ECOMOG
Côte d'Ivoire is a country were every countries in Africa have their people living in it if ECOMOG should come to Côte d4ivoire then all African is affected.
military intervention in ivory coast
ecowas decisionto use legitimate force to remove Gbagbo is a welcome development.i really dont know why some analysts are entertaining fears over its sucess.Gbagbo should should go for paece to raign.any african laeder who refuses to go at the end of his tenure should be shown out through force.
ivory coast
yes yes yes ECOWAS have the muscle to remove ghagho less then 24hrs,when come to reality ivory cost army cant face any west african army phisically,UN ,AU,and ECOWAS need to stop playing politic with small conflit like this ,if africa need to be an democratic continent
African politics
It's a shame, seeing the chaos and gross devaluation of human lives, being wasted in numbers, each and every time african leads decided to be themself, truely selfish as they come,playing god with the lives of the people they sworn to serve, protet and care for. is a known fact, that they do not succeed with some assistance from some of their own people and some westerners, who place the values of gold, diamond,oil above billons of lives of africans. isn't ironic? this sit tight in POWER syndrome of african leaders got to STOP.Now tell us in GOD's name, what kind of magic or results do, someone who had been in power since, God's dog was a puppy, in the likes of mr.gbabo, mr paul biya,mr.Al gaddafi,mr. mugabe,mr mubarak, mr kabila and mr i.babangida and the host of others to mention by few. hope to achieve, if given more years.isn't untill we all gone existention like the dinosaurs?
Ghana
As usual,those ghanaian cowards swallow their own vomit...Again...their is a saying about not helping to quench a fire in a neigbours house...It consumes everybody
Alassane Ouattara, IS THE BEST MAN FOR THE COUNTRY
WE NEED ECOMOG NOW ? STOP THE TALKING AND COME AND GET Laurent Gbagbo NOW WE ARE TRIED PLEASE BRING ECOMOG ,,,,, Alassane Ouattara, IS THE BEST MAN FOR THE COUNTRY
gbagbe is nothing
where are africans ,wil know who is who,gbagbe problems is over this time ,just wactch and see what will happined very soon, this days let africa life changes ,let us knows who is our enemies ,let us come together where all african and makes our land of ecomog great,lodon is the pass problems ever have life ,but thanks God today hav change ,nothing stay for ever ,nigeria dreams now is real ,USA OF AMERICA HAS OPENING MIND, THE NEVER PLAY GAME ,YOU WILL SEE NIGERIA COMING BACK HOME AND HAV A WOUNDERFUL NATION AGAIN ,PRESIDENT JONATHAN GOOD LUCK ,FIRST PHD EVER IN TOP OF OUR PRESIDENT ,LET ALL AFRICANS COUNTRY PRAY AND PRAY HARD ,OUR SON JONATHAN HAS VISIONS FOR ALL AFRICA,BUT NIGERIA MUST BE OK FIRST BEFORE ANY ANOTHER COUNTRY ,THANKS ,
Ivory Coast
Why Ecomog Should Act Quickly to Remove Ex-President Gbagbo from Power.
By Yacouba Cisse
The current crisis in Ivory Coast has the dangerous potential to drag on and may ultimately lead to war with its attendant consequences. In light of the above, there is an urgent imperative for something to be done as soon as possible. In my opinion, I do believe that the military arm of the regional grouping, ECOWAS should as a matter of inexorable urgency send in their military contingent to Cote ‘ Ivoire to forcefully remove erstwhile President Laurent Gbagbo before he drags the country into a major armed confrontation of unpredictable calamitous proportion. The aim of this article is to give five reasons why Ecomog should act in order to bring a permanent peace to the region. The article underscores the urgency for such a speedy military intervention in Cote D’ Ivoire.
Gbagbo has refused to step down despite the fact that it is demonstrably crystal clear that he has lost the election of November 28, 2010. What are we going to do in these unfortunate political circumstances? What would the Ecowas, America, Britain, France, Nigeria, the African Union do to liberate Ivory Coast from his present illegitimate government and consequent dictatorship? I propose to briefly discuss some salient issues regarding the current crisis.
Dialogue
On December 26th 2010 the West African leaders paid visit to Laurent Gbagbo to ask him to leave power peacefully. Gbagbo refused to accept to leave. In the same vein, on January 3rd. 2011 the same leaders again went back and tried to propose a dialogue to resolve the crisis. But he arrogantly refused. Many observers have already warned about a return of civil war in Cote D’ Ivoire. If some measures are not taken with expedition.. We must appreciate the fact that time is short. The sufferings of the masses have been great not only for the ******* but also for Ecowas citizens living in Cote D’ Ivoire . For instance thousands of people have been alleged to have suffered torture and others have been alleged to have been killed by death squads.
Some may say dialogue is still possible. This does not seem feasible and realistic any longer. Further reasons are advanced for my position in this respect. I will examine the reasons seriatim
The massive violations of Humans rights
The past ten years have been a burden for the people of Ivory Coast who have suffered a war in 2002-2003, after a rebellion attempted to overthrow president Gbagbo. Further, one million of Ivorians became displaced in their neighbouring countries. Moreover, thousands of women were raped.
I will not get into details about this for now, but readers can get detailed information regarding the regime’s human rights record in reports published by Human Rights Watch and other human rights organizations. Between the 16th and 21st December more than one hundred and seventy people were killed by forces loyal to ex-president Gbagbo. There has also been report from the opposition quarters that people who were suspected to be supporters of President elect Alassane Ouattara were also killed. In the past days, the United Nations has reported to have been denied access.
Economy
Ivory Coast weighs about 40% in the West African Banking system. Based on this fact, the instability in Ivory Coast will not only affect Ivorians, but West Africans as a whole. Hence, it is very important for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to act swiftly in order to prevent collapse of the regional economic system. If this is not done, the region will suffer economic downturn and it might take decades to rebuild confidence and stability in the region.
Political
Unfortunately, the region has produced a number of ruthless and barbaric leaders in the past. For examples, Charles Taylor, Samuel Doe, Babanginda, Sani Abacha, Sekou Toure, Yahiya Jammeh, Moussa Traore and many more were all ruthless leaders. And today, the region faces dictators such as Laurent Gbagbo. It is very clear that if Laurent Gbagbo is allowed to remain in power, it will create political instability in the region for the coming years. Given the fact that the political instability in Ivory Coast will result in massive displacement of populations, it will create instability in the region. Besides,, if ECOWAS fails to act, it will set a very bad example in the region and Africa as a whole because in 2011, around fifteen elections will take place in the continent.
The Urgent Imperative for Milatary action
All the possible diplomatic avenues have been explored. If ex-president Ggabgo did not resign on Jan. 3rd, 2011 as stated by the West African leaders, military action needs to be taken against him. As for now, military action is most likely the only option left to remove ex-president Gbagbo from hanging onto power to avoid the entire scenario stated above. It is therefore right to use legitimate action to remove Gbagbo in the name of storing democracy. The 20 million Ivoirians and some 300 million West Africans need peace and stability in the region. Moreover, we must build democracy and strong institutions. Consequently, leaders like Gbagbo cannot cling to power. My appeal to you leaders of the Ecowas is to act quickly. Too many people have lost their lives because President Gbagbo and his militia and further delay cannot be justified.
Too many women have been raped and killed. Too many children have lost their lives because they were caught in fire. Too many have been killed because they belonged to the different political or ethnic group. How long do you need in order to decide whether to remove him or not? We, the youth of this country, have dreams to build a country where the rule of law is upheld. Everyday in Abdijan and the interior there are reports of killing. Genocide is certainly in the making.
Let me take the opportunity to share a little story with you: As a 14 year old, I dreamt of Gbagbo becoming the president of the Ivory Coast. I read one of his books and I was convinced he was the “one”. I was disappointed when he “stole the election” before the electoral body finished counting. He was contesting against General Guei.
That was in October 2000. Gbagbo sent the troops out in the streets to chant “Down with Guei!” In that heavily charged evening of October 30th 57 bodies were discovered in the outskirts of Abidjan. They all had names from the north of the country. According to local Human Rights organizations and International Human Rights, this was deemed genocide and I will submit that it was a form of ethnic purification. Who was behind it? Many witnesses and survivors said it was Gbagbo or rather forces loyal to Gbagbo. The killings followed police harassment, extra judiciary’s killings, and sometimes political killings on both sides. I do not want to dwell on the details. In 2002, a rebellion failed to overthrow Gbagbo. However, we are now saying that enough is enough and that Gbagbo must go and it is my humble opinion that military force is the only solution as it stands now in Ivory Coast.
In my conclusion, permit me to state the fact that although a peaceful solution is the best for all, however the fact remains that this power intoxicated Gbagbo will never go peacefully. . Moreover, Rwalings proposal to resolve this peacefully will not work. I have a deep respect of President Rwalings but Gbagbo’s people have had the time to revisit the ballot boxes and change the rules. I am of the opinion that we must stop thinking it is the West to blame for all that goes wrong in our countries. It is true that for many decades countries like France, Britain, Portugal have chosen the rulers in Africa. Having said this Gbagbo has been ruling, not Sarkozy.
Finally, I am of the opinion that only force will resolve the situation. Yes, it might cost lives but we cannot wait. If Gbagbo is not removed we will fail Africa and that will send a wrong message to African dictators.
By Yacouba Cisse
******* Writer and Human Rights Activist
Living and working in Europe
Copy: To President Goodluck Johnattan of Nigeria
President Alassane Ouattara
President Jacob Juma of South Africa
Ecowas Secretary
Ex-President Jerry Rawlings and Olesegun Obansanjo
SIGNALER UN ABUS Msg n° 4747731
ivory coast crisis
it's a shame that this is starting to drag out. i hope that a resolution would be quick and swift.
solution to ivory coast crisis
i think it would better for the safety of the country if ecowas can let gbagbo rule for this time while finding a strong solutions mesure for the coming elction because since all over the west africa is the same problem.think about togo election for exemple , we no want fight in abidjan is truth that outarra want power but not in that way our exellence mr the president member of ecowas commitee.