Is Fidel Castro’s message, which hints at his possible retirement, a sign of his deteriorating health?

Not necessarily. It’s true that Fidel Castro has not been seen in public for more than a year, since hospitalisation. We’ve been seeing him in photos and on television. His absence from the public scene means that he’s been unwell and he can’t appear in public. But it does not necessarily imply that his health condition has deteriorated.

This message also has political implications for Cuba: Cuba is due to hold parliamentary elections on Jan. 20 and the newly elected parliament will approve 31 members of the executive Council of State at its new session in March.


Fidel Castro suggested that he would cede his position to younger people. Who is likely to succeed him?

Many candidates are possible. Fidel’s brother Raul Castro had been temporarily handed power but Raul is 76-years-old. There are many possible candidates working with Raul and are between the ages 40-60. These are people known among Cubans and are potential leaders.

Within the government there is Vice President Carlos Lage and Ricardo Alarcon, President of the National Assembly. The Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Culture are also possible candidates.

There are also potential leaders within the Cuban Communist Party.

Finally, there is the military – the third pillar. The military could study the situation in the post-Castro period.

Fidel Castro wielded all power: he was the first secretary of his party, president of State Council, president of the council of ministers and head of army staff. But today no one can exercise power the way Castro did. One has to look at the division of power between the government, the Communist party and the army.


Washington finds Fidel’s letter “interesting”. What will be United States role post -Fidel?

United States’ attitude towards Cuba is expected to remain unchanged as long as US President George W. Bush is in power. Everything depends on the US presidential election result in Nov. 2008.

If the Democrats come to power, one may expect changes. However, within the Democrats themselves, different candidates have different policies towards the island. For example: Barack Obama is in favour of a dialogue with Cuba, contrary to Hilary Clinton. Other Democrats agree with Bush’s stance on Cuba.

There are also economic factors at stake: American companies would like to relax sanctions imposed against Cuba, especially since the discovery of oil on the northern coast. Many American, European and Chinese firms want restrictions against Cuba lifted and are mounting pressure on American Congress to do so.

Fidel Castro hasn’t chosen this moment at random to announce his possible retirement – a change in the US political scenario could imply a change in US policies towards Cuba.