Will Donald Trump defy the odds again like in 2016 when the polls got it oh so wrong? Two weeks ahead of the US midterm elections, the president has honed a simple narrative: that foreigners - and sometimes feminists - are coming to get you.
Trump is changing the conversation with accusations that the Democrats are egging on the latest migrant caravan that's heading north from Central America. The US president is threatening to send troops to the Mexican border. We'll examine the root causes and the timing of this crisis. Then there's the energizing of Trump's base after the recent confirmation hearings for his new Supreme Court Justice. Brett Kavanaugh's defence against sexual violence may have appalled domestic abuse victims but it galvanized those won over by the "witch hunt" argument.
Democrats have outspent Republicans and seem more motivated to vote. But historically, turnout is low in midterm elections. The most motivated are the ones who will go out and vote. Will the president's nativist appeal bring enough of his hardcore base to the polls?
Produced by Michele BARBERO, Jimena MORALES-VELASCO and James VASINA
Founder, Zogby Analytics
Communications Director, Jolt Texas
Professor of American Studies, Sorbonne Nouvelle University